What's hot and what's not in prewar cards?

I'm interested in hearing opinions on what sets are HOT and what sets are COLD in the prewar market right now.

I'll start us off with one of each.

HOT: T206 rare backs, pretty much all scarce PCL cards

COLD: E98

Why do you think your hot picks are hot and your cold picks are cold

HOT: Cabinet cards
COLD: E107s, although only in comparison to the levels they were at last year

I will agree that E98's and E107's are cold. However, that makes for a perfect buying opportunity for HOFers in either set. Buy low.....sell high.

T214 Victory Tobacco cards are cold. I don't understand this one, but they are. Again...perfect buying opportunity.

Tango Eggs are cold.

E94's are hit or miss. Sometimes they are hot, and other times you just can't even sell one when you're offering it up at a steal.

Hot:
T206 Rare Backs
T206 Big Time HOFers (Cobb, Young, Matty, Johnson, Wagner)
D304's
Boston Garters

e107 commons are cold, but I don't think great deals can be founnd among the HOFer's. (maybe good, but not great)

Recent sales of Mastro's Joss and Plank; REA's Chesbro, Collins & McGinnity; and BL's Clarke don't show huge price savings IMO based on the condition/visual appeal of each.

Looks like the majority of mainstream issues that can be easily found are soft on price compared to last year.

It seems many issues are cold in comparison to one year ago.

COLD:

N172
N162
N28
N29
N300
T204 Ramly
T204 TTT and square frame
T205
T206
T210
T213
T9
E90-1
E91
E92
E93
E94
E95
E96
E97
E98
E101
E102
E103
E107 commons
M101-4
M101-5
M116 pastel
M116 blue
E135
E121
E210
E220
Rookie cards
Game cards
Pins

Prices across the board are down, but there are a few exceptions. These issues that have been holding their values.

HOT:

D304 in PSA 5 or better
E100
E99
PCL cards

I am glad that the cards i am going after are a bit COLD. I picked up a few M116 Blues for great prices.


Cold: most T's and E's



HOT: not much, agree with what others are saying.

Mark

psacollector wrote:It seems many issues are cold in comparison to one year ago.

COLD:

N172
N162
N28
N29
N300
T204 Ramly
T204 TTT and square frame
T205
T206
T210
T213
T9
E90-1
E91
E92
E93
E94
E95
E96
E97
E98
E101
E102
E103
E107 commons
M101-4
M101-5
M116 pastel
M116 blue
E135
E121
E210
E220
Rookie cards
Game cards
Pins

I'd argue that the cards I've put in RED above are not COLD and in fact are selling pretty well. I could easily be wrong as I'm basing this purely on my own observations.

Also I agree with Jeff's distinction between E107 commons (which are frigid) and HOFers (which are still quite strong).

Hot = Cabinets and Cabinet look alikes (T3, M110, etc.)
Cold = mainstream n-cards

It is difficult to gauge what is hot and what is cold, since we are all inherently biased towards cards that we own. The fact is that nothing is so cold that it can not be sold. What we have to look at however is whether the cards are selling for less than what they were selling for a few months ago, one year ago, two years ago, etc.

E90-1 cards are selling for much less than one year ago. The Mitchell card is a fraction of what it once was and low grade Jackson rookies are selling for a fraction of what it once did. But for the super rarities, E90-1 card prices have dipped with the rest of the caramel card market.

E94 is always a popular set and master set collectors have done their parts to prop the prices up. Overall though, prices are much less than they were wer one year ago. Take a look at the three Wagners sold in REA; probably average 20% down overall. Partial sets in REA and Mastro always do well, but singles on ebay do not. Take a look at the group that Mastro sold through ebay. Strong prices compared to five years ago, but much weaker than last year.

E103 cards are harder to measure because there is less sales data out there. In looking at the stars like Matty, Wagner, Lajoie and Cobb though, it appears that prices have gone down.

Black and white cards like E121, Collins McCarthy and Sporting News sets have all dropped dramatically. There were two or three registry participants that were running up the prices on these on ebay one year ago. It seems they have either completed their sets or lost interest. In any event, price according to VCP are down.

I can't agree on the m101s. Graded 7s have tapered off somewhat, but still can fetch around $200--more if the registry guys need it. Blank backs were never overly popular, but mid-grade cards with ad backs are holding their own. In fact, some of the scarcer backs have done very well the last year, almost too well for my liking. A Block & Kuhl common just sold for $177 in SGC 20.

Psa Collector wrote,
"E90-1 cards are selling for much less than one year ago. The Mitchell
card is a fraction of what it once was and low grade Jackson rookies
are selling for a fraction of what it once did. But for the super
rarities, E90-1 card prices have dipped with the rest of the caramel
card market."

I'm probably very biased when discussing the E90-1 set, but aren't most all sets way down from a year ago. This doesnt
necessarily mean these sets are cold, just means the market in general is down right now as a whole. Many key cards from the E90-1 set still bring a premium. Try putting this set together even in today's market and you would see what I'm talking about.
Although I do agree with you in regards to the Mitchell card not being what it once was, I have a hard time finding the data you mention that show E90-1 Jackson's selling for a fraction of what they once did.
This card even in low grade if presentable will still run you 5 figures unless it's full of holes or skinned on the reverse.

Tony

tony i think that's what wes is saying...card prices are cooling down in general from the early '07 peak...unless you got a w600 cobb or a boston garter jax something that hasn't surfaced in awhile.

some sets are affected more than others though.

Hi Quan -
I think were all in agreement with Wes about everything being down in general, thats for sure. I definitely am on the same page as
he is when it comes to this subject. I'm just not seeing E90-1 Jax's selling for a fraction of what they once did though.
Do you not agree?

just looking at the VCP data... the Feb Mile High e90-1 SGC 10 Jackson sold for $6500, that seems to be pretty far off from previous SGC 10/20 sales.

Below are scans of the Sgc-10 E90-1 Jax your speaking of. As mentioned above a low grade "Presentable"
example will still cost you 5 figures. I don't think this one is the one we should be making an example of. Its
one of the worst examples that has come up for auction in recent memory.
Two more recent E90-1 Jax auctions - 5/8 REA - Sgc-30 - $16,450.00 >>> 5/20 Mastro - Sgc-40 - $20,400.00
There was also a Gai-1.5 in Mile High's Feb auction that ended just under $9K with a pretty good size hole at the
top of the card and paper loss on the reverse. That card if graded by Sgc would have received a grade of 10.

C'mon Mable, listin to da rich folk discissin weter dere 10 or 20 thousand doller card (or more) is goin down in value to the lowly figger of six or seben thousand dollars. Heck, Zebs whole celletin and his still ain't wort dat much.

But one o'em thinks you can tell based on one sale, an de udder dont. specially wen its all beat up. Wadda u think?

Hi Tony,
I initially listed a comprehensive list on the cold list to show, in my roundabout way, that the majority of the prewar card market is down. (I should have been more clear and just said "the majority of the prewar card market is down.") In any event, I didn't mean to disparage any set on the list. I agree with Ben in the the E90-1 has actually held up much better than most other prewar sets.

You are more familiar with this set than I am, so I will defer to you on pricing trends. But here is what I was thinking about when I wrote the Jax was down: You may recall that approximately eighteen months ago, one collector was hoarding all the lower condition JJ RCs. Unless my memory is failing me, the prices of the poor condition cards were all higher than today's prices. Around the same time, we saw a SGC 3 card sell for $30,000. Recently PSA/SGC 3 copies are hovering around the $20,000 mark with one copy selling for more last December in Mastro.
Wes

Hi Wes -
I think the $20-$22K price you mention wev'e seen on a few Sgc-40 examples
is about right as far as todays value goes on a nice VG example of an E90-1 Jax.

Gil - HUH????

Tony: imho you can not establish a trend from a single sale.
While Im not sure that is any clearer, it could be.

I have noticed a lot of "new money" in the sets that current card companies have recently reproduced, such as the T206, T205, Cracker Jack, Allen & Ginter, and 1933 Goudey.

I've recently encountered inexperienced collectors buying up T206 commons in absoloutely dreadful condition for more than what I was paying for T206 HOFers less than a decade ago. There is growing movement among modern card collectors to own a few T206s, regardless of condition, team, player, etc. just so they can say "Look! I own a T206!"

But for me a hot set not mentioned is Cracker Jack (particularly 1914), because I cannot find them, and when I do I cannot touch them.

This is a HUGE generalization (and is probably not that accurate) but...

HOT D, R, and M cards
Cold E and T cards

It's ironic because I like T and E cards the most.

-Randy

Gil -
Got it... Sometimes your riddles confuse the crap out of me though. In a good way of course.
However, this is exactly what I was claiming in regards to the beater skinned Sgc-10 E90-1 Jax
that was brought up by Jeff P. This specific card being in the condition that it is shouldn't be looked
upon as a good example to go off of when trying to estimate the value on an E90-1 Jax card in today's
market in that grade. Far better examples in same Sgc-10 grade have brought more money consistently
when compared to this one that sold for $6400.


Tony

Some things are just HOT !!!
But I dunno about 45K

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-1911-T206-CY-YOUNG-GHOST-MULTI-OVERSTRIKE-REVERSE_W0QQitemZ120273642809QQihZ002QQcategoryZ31718QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem




Refund will be given as: Exchange

"Holy Cow".........

T206 production variations are red hot, I guess.





$45,000?