The economy and vintage cards....

I was going to put this in the Bull Pen but since its about vintage cards i started it here.

First of all...i predicted this last year that the vinatge card market will take a hit because of everything going on (real estate, oil prices, gas prices). Not that i want to see prices for cards tumble, unless i am buying, but it looks like they are taking quite a beating. If you look at REA, Mastro realized prices you will see a big change in certain sets. Yes, i know some cards went for big money but the low hammer prices of the E107 cards just shocked me. It may have been the large group for sale at one time but i think it had a lot to do with collectors holding off buying. I won a few cards last week and was happy to pay the prices for them.

Some of the more rare E and T cards did very nice but i think the 2 major auctions that ended within days of each other had to get the obscure cards to draw buyers in. The high buyers premium is a turn off and i hope these auction houses see that. It seems they are more intersted in how much THEY will make and not what the consigner will make. And i am talking about a 17%-20% BP.

In my opinion it does not look good for 2008/2009. I believe most collectors will just hold on to their cards and not settle for a huge loss. Which in turn means less available to buy. I have noticed a lull in Ebay listings for vintage cards ( take away Ebay dump days) and thats before and after the auctions have ended. So basically i would like to ask...do you agree we are headed for a tough card market in 2008/2009 or do you believe its never been better to buy/sell vintage cards.


Mark

Well Mark,

I disagreed with your economic and football forecasts last year, and I was half right.
I sure hope that you are not correct again on your economic forecast - or maybe I do hope that you are correct.
I am not a seller.

PS. Is milk still high? Gold is 10-15% off from its high last year of about $1000.

Actually milk is much lower here in CT, its down to $2.99 a gallon which is great because my daughter loves it. Probably the stores had to lower prices since i have heard many shoppers say they have cut back when it was at $4.50 a few months ago.

Mark

I think with the summer coming up and people
going on vacations, the casual card collector will probably be lowering their
amount of spending and focusing on the necessities (not that cards are not
one).


I for one have really just decided to continue collecting my certain cards and
not buying to many to try to sell later down the road for a little
profit. But a positive is card prices on the lower end of the scale ($500
and lower) have lowered, it seems the higher priced cards $5k+ it's still pretty
strong.

But to answer your question, assuming gas is around $4 a gallon, 2008 - 2009 will be the same if not lower, but great time to buy lower end cards and hold on to sell in 5+ years.

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I thought prices were pretty strong in Heritage, REA and Mastro. If they weren't I would have come away with 5 times the cards I did. But i got outbid on many lots, even when I thought I was bidding over fair market value.

Which lots did you think were weak, Mark? I thought prices were very high in last weeks auctions. Certainly the big cards like the T206 Wagners and Baltimore News Ruth set all time record prices. There were wide variance in prices for the E107s, but considering how many were sold at the same time, I thought overall they did well.

The cards like the Wagner and Ruth did very well, but i would have to pour over the entire auction again to list specific cards which i can do when i get time.

I think in general most lots were on the low end. Just my opinion.


Mark

I disagree, I would have liked it if you were right because I'm an net buyer. But I disagree with your assessment, and I do not think your prediction in the past has become accurate. Just my opinion.

I think the discussion of whether current market on vintage cards is down (or not) needs some frame of reference. Down compared to when? Last year? 5 years ago? 10?

When comparing current prices to last year (high and low end), I think Mark is probably right. Prices have leveled off and, in some cases, taken a bit of a plunge. I'm not sure if that's because of the current state of the US economy, or if it's just the market correcting itself after a pretty substantial surge. IMO it's likely a combination of the two.

Comparing current prices of vintage cards to 5 or 10 years ago is an entirely different story however. People tend to forget just how different the prewar scene is today. Lots of new blood and new $ has come into the hobby in recent years, resulting in a much more competitive (and expensive!) environment than what we were used to not that long ago.

To me, the best way to test how the market is doing is to ask yourself two questions:

1. Are you bidding similarly to what you were in the past? If "Yes", then....
2. Are you winning more lots, winning fewer lots or about the same?

For me, the answer is about the same. What's the answer for you? If you are bidding about the same, but aren't buying more...then prices haven't come down.

I thought my two lots wents got very weak prices. I was expecting about $500 more per card than what they went for. Seeing the Cobb go for $1k really hurt. Whoever got that card got one hell of a deal.

Jay

What were your two lots?

lots 306 and 307 and e95 Cobb and e101 Wagner

Jay

Those do look a tad low versus previous sales. I do think that caramel cards peaked maybe 16 months ago and are lower now....but caramel cards aren't the only cards out there.

50% of the cards which I buy are priced below $200.
50% of the cards which I buy are priced $200-500.
with few exceptions.

In my marketplace cards have increased in price, or stayed the same, every year, for the past several years.

The point being. gentlemen, that if you are looking at a market of less common cards which will likely sell above $1K, then each individual sale becomes comparitively important This is because there are few sales when compared to the $0-500. marketplace.

So attempting to determine whether the market is up or down is like looking at the output of an oscilloscope and trying to integrate the amplitudes indicated, while the lower end market is typically defined by the multipoint plotting of what becomes gentle curves, which are easy to define and interpret.

imo.

i guess thats why Ben gave you the jokester icon

Mark

Gee Mark,
I was thinking that it is why the Bulldog gave me the Riddler title.

cmoking wrote:To me, the best way to test how the market is doing is to ask yourself two questions:

1. Are you bidding similarly to what you were in the past? If "Yes", then....
2. Are you winning more lots, winning fewer lots or about the same?

For me, the answer is about the same. What's the answer for you? If you are bidding about the same, but aren't buying more...then prices haven't come down.

I may have to change my answer. I won a lot more cards than I expected over the last few days. I'm definitely softening my stance now.

Sloate and Memory Lane have both ended since the last post. Prices in both of these auctions were very strong.

Prices on ebay for prewar cards appear softer than one year ago. Maybe collectors are just not bothering with ebay these day and instead focusing on the private auctions.

wes u may be right on that. a few of my cards have slagged on ebay/bst while the same card/grade do very well in the big auctions. buy the card not the grade etc but there shouldn't be that big a difference. i will look into consigning more for bigger cards in the future.

There shouldn't have to be that difference.
But to many, ebay is a minefield of deceit
And the perception may be that an auction house is one more layer of consultants;
well worth the additional cost.