Anyone else see a change from 1 year ago?

Is it a different Vintage card market now compared to a year ago, does anyone else see a decline in cards for sale lately. I have seen the scarce and rare cards stay the same or go up in value but commons of T206 cards and other plentiful cards have gone down.

Very tough to say what will happen in the next 6-8 months, with the Tax man giving out cash it may help somewhat but i think its going to be a tough summer. Same as stocks....buy low---sell high


Mark

VCP and Card Pricer certainly should have one year or more of data available for analysis right now, to identify trending of the various market sectors.

declining prices sound good to me since I now have money to spend

Jay

I see declining prices in T206's for sure. They are down quite a bit from where they were a year ago. I know this, because I started out by collecting T206's. Now I'm kind of on a T206 kick again, and it's definitely a buyers market.

I also want to note that E98's have started to slide a bit as well (for the most part, but there are always a few exceptions), probably due to the flood on the market.

E94's are really strong.

And I don't see too many T216's coming to market right now.

Just to get an idea what this stuff looks like, I accessed the t206.com utility; and here is what I found.

I looked at PSA graded red Cobb cards because I thought that was a good idea.

For grades above PSA6 insufficient transactions are recorded to draw a conclusion.
However, for PSA6, about a 25% reduction in the price realized over the past year is noted.
Below that level, through grades of 5, 4, and 3; no price depreciation is noted.
But PSA2 exhibits a 20% drop in price over the past year.
This price drop again disappears in grade PSA1.

In order to draw any conclusion, I think, a guy would have to look at SGC graded cards and also the effect of both graders on other Cobb t206 cards (and other cards in this price range).

Please feel free to offer comment, criticism, insight and inquiry.
Gil

but i do watch the prices because if they drop enough i will start to collect them. I have noticed grades 7,6,5 move much lower and 4,3,2,1 stay about the same. Of course this is just my opinion.


Mark

The point which I was hoping to make here, is that there is no longer a need for opinions to replace data. Opinions are much more valuable in analyzing data. The utilities accumulate data (on sale prices) for us.

Mark, I do agree - some cards are really cheap lately. I have been picking up some caramels that I like but had to sell a year or two ago at prices lower than I sold mine for. This is nice, as I have been able to accumulate a lot of nice sunset backgrounds lately.

However, it seems that when a Red Hindu or Uzit that I collect comes up for sale (which is not often at all), they are going for outrageous prices.

I have told quite a few collectors that it would be very wise to buy as many graded T206 cards as possible at nice deals now and hold onto them. With next year being 1909, I would say this Winter (probably starting in November), prices are going to start escalating dramatically on T206's and we will be seeing an influx of "new" T206 collectors with the 100 Anniversary - especially since many people don't consider anything an "antique" unless it is 100 years old or older.

Then, with this new influx of collectors for T206's, we will start to see other Vintage sets increasing in price shortly after, as these collectors become more educated and learn about all the other different Vintage Issues.

The non-mainstream issues are coming cheap again. I just scored a bunch of decent w572s, mostly for 99 cents each. The Edd Rousch cost me a little over $8. I might actually chase the set sans Ruth and Cobb. It's interesting that I haven't seen either of those cards in years, yet the commons are available all the time.

Jay

The prices for T206s with common backs are definately down, this weekend I tracked 2 SGC 84s and they went for less that $350, I have seen most SGC 84/PSA 7s go for less than $500 when they were going for around $700 a year ago. The backs from Cycle/American Beauty and up have been strong and increasing. Seems to be a trend of going after something a little tougher. I do think the lowgrade (VG and down) have been holding there own.

AS far as T202s, it has always been a weird market and tough to get a grip of where the prices are and that does not seem to have change in a year.

Lee

I have told quite a few collectors that it would be very wise to buy as many graded T206 cards as possible at nice deals now and hold onto them. With next year being 1909, I would say this Winter (probably starting in November), prices are going to start escalating dramatically on T206's and we will be seeing an influx of "new" T206 collectors with the 100 Anniversary - especially since many people don't consider anything an "antique" Scott, As John S, 20/20 would say! Give me A BREAK

I would say the big decline in prices have been the higher grade T206's (PSA 7 and SGC 84 and above), 6's and below seemed to dip a little at the end of summer but seem to be back again.

6's - $180 - $220
5's - $90 - $110
4's - $45 - $60
3's - $27 - $35
2's - $20 - $25
1's (1.5) - $15 - $20

I'm not too sure what I think about the 100 year anniversary, I know
the Topps Buybacks did a lot for T206s, but I think they were recent
enough that the 100 year might cause a small spike but nothing to big
or long term.

But looking at the whole picture I think prices have stabilized and not risen like they have over the past few years, making it look like prices have dropped.

sdbh