Cobb (Tango) or Lowdermilk (Red Cross)

Blair, your argument is as flawed as the condition of the card you're defending.

But hey, these are advanced collectors. What do plebians like ourselves know? You have to be in the hobby a loooong time to want to shell out 30 plus for a brown lenox, or 20 plus for a lowdy/red cross double rarity (although you can only view one side of the card at a time). Like the gentleman who purchased the crinkled piece of cardboard considered a Tango Eggs Cobb, these guys are way more sophisticated than anything we bring to the table. Their collections have nothing to do with baseball history whatsoever and have simply taken on a whole life of their own. Maybe one day we'll have the last laugh with our mainstream E and N cards. But perhaps we'll become like them, paying extreme prices for bizarre rarities that no one outside the baseball card world can understand or appreciate.

jbonie wrote:Blair, your argument is as flawed as the condition of the card you're defending.

But hey, these are advanced collectors. What do plebians like ourselves know? You have to be in the hobby a loooong time to want to shell out 30 plus for a brown lenox, or 20 plus for a lowdy/red cross double rarity (although you can only view one side of the card at a time). Like the gentleman who purchased the crinkled piece of cardboard considered a Tango Eggs Cobb, these guys are way more sophisticated than anything we bring to the table. Their collections have nothing to do with baseball history whatsoever and have simply taken on a whole life of their own. Maybe one day we'll have the last laugh with our mainstream E and N cards. But perhaps we'll become like them, paying extreme prices for bizarre rarities that no one outside the baseball card world can understand or appreciate.

Hey Jamie,

Don't let my youthful appearance and good looks fool you!

I'm definitely no old-timer like a Ted Z. But I'm only 2 years younger than our dentist friend, Pete "Red Cross Lowdy". I doubt it is possible he has been in this hobby any longer than I have because I've been collecting since I was a child. I was buying vintage cards in the 1980s and pre-war since the 1990s.

Though I'm well aware I'm not a heavy hitter in the grand scheme of things, I think you might be surprised how many people on these boards are quite a bit newer to this game than I am...and some of them are not as old as you might be guessing.

jbonie wrote:But perhaps we'll become like them, paying extreme prices for bizarre rarities that no one outside the baseball card world can understand or appreciate.

No one outside the hobby understands or appreciates any of it, outside a t206 Wagner perhaps.

I personally like it that way. That's what makes it cool to me, the esoteric aspect of the hobby.

Bicem wrote:

No one outside the hobby understands or appreciates any of it, outside a t206 Wagner perhaps.

I personally like it that way. That's what makes it cool to me, the esoteric aspect of the hobby.

Well put, Jeff. Of course these are all awesome cards. I just like to poke fun at the hobby

Ah yes... an esoteric hobby. That certainly sounds better than...

"I spend lots of money collecting cardboard pictures of dead guys who used to play a game."

terjung wrote:Ah yes... an esoteric hobby. That certainly sounds better than...

"I spend lots of money collecting cardboard pictures of dead guys who used to play a game."

Well when you put it that way I almost feel bad for us.

Or you can tell them that you collect cardboard pictures of dead guys who used to play with their bat and balls.

Bicem wrote:No one outside the hobby understands or appreciates any of it, outside a t206 Wagner perhaps.

I personally like it that way. That's what makes it cool to me, the esoteric aspect of the hobby.

Couldn't agree more. I've noticed a three-stage progression in how people tend to respond when they find out I'm a collector. First they look at me sort of bemused, like it's more than a little silly, but they inevitably ask if any of my cards are valuable, so (if I trust them) I estimate the collection's overall worth. Then the look changes to kind of impressed. Then I clarify that I don't collect for the specific purpose of 'making money' on them, but because of how much I love the game and its history. Then they look at me like I'm totally nuts and the subject almost always changes.

Who knows, maybe we are nuts. But if this is nuts, I'm fine with it.

LucasRiley wrote:

Bicem wrote:No one outside the hobby understands or appreciates any of it, outside a t206 Wagner perhaps.

I personally like it that way. That's what makes it cool to me, the esoteric aspect of the hobby.

Couldn't agree more. I've noticed a three-stage progression in how people tend to respond when they find out I'm a collector. First they look at me sort of bemused, like it's more than a little silly, but they inevitably ask if any of my cards are valuable, so (if I trust them) I estimate the collection's overall worth. Then the look changes to kind of impressed. Then I clarify that I don't collect for the specific purpose of 'making money' on them, but because of how much I love the game and its history. Then they look at me like I'm totally nuts and the subject almost always changes.

Who knows, maybe we are nuts. But if this is nuts, I'm fine with it.

There is nothing worse than having to check your eBay watch list before you take a girl out to dinner. For some reason, they find this VERY OFFENSIVE. Be warned.

I think the Cobb pose is a pretty cool one myself - I voted for the Tango Eggs, and I am not changing my mind!

I got a n172 SGC 84 Delahanty plus a Sunday Kelly for the same price as Pete's Lowdy. Plus I got a n173 SGC 80 Ewing & Mascot for the same price as the Tango Eggs Cobb. Ask me and the TE Cobb is a wrinkled piece of crap while the Lowdermilk is just a curiosity. To think that I could bang rare high grade cards with fabulous images of perhaps the three greatest players of the 19th Century, that to me is value. I'll leave the crap for the "advanced collectors" and take the finest cards of the greatest players from the only extensive set created in the earliest and most rare era of baseball. So enjoy guys

And no I'm not biased

jbonie wrote: I'll leave the crap for the "advanced collectors"

We appreciate it!

I apologize as I think I over-stated my case a little bit earlier on, it's just good fun to, you know, give 'ole Pete a shot in ribs every now and then. Sorry, Pete!

No offense taken...it's definitely a debatable topic...I'd love to have those cards you have!!!! Honestly...I bought the loudy as more of an investment because I thought it was a pretty good deal and someday I hope to make some money off it and buy twice as many mid grade 19th century superstar cabinet cards with the proceeds!

Well, Pete, the SGC 40 Red Cross Cunningham went for 3.25k+juice and your Lowdy went for 18k+juice. So that's a 6x premium for Lowdy over Cunningham. Yet with a common back, wouldn't the premium for a Lowdy over a Cunningham be even greater, perhaps 10x or more? Therefore, fundamentally, you got a good deal on the card. I can make fun of the entire premise, but I'm sure you'll be laughing last once you come down with all those high grade HOF 173's, dwarfing my collection in the process!

PS Also good karma for keeping the Lowdy card on the board, so to speak.

Where does the Lowdermilk rank in terms of non-HOFer/star closing prices based solely on the back?

I can't speak specifically to the Lowdermilk / rare back combo, but using T206 as a guide, rare backs command a premium and HOFers command a premium, but rare-backed HOFers don't command as much premium as what I originally would have thought. In other words, the premiums don't end up being additive. It was explained to me that "rare back" people typically are looking for an example of the card and aren't typically worried about the front being a HOFer. Whether there is any truth to that, I haven't the foggiest, but the sale values that I have seen tend to support it.

As with any rule, there are exceptions. Is a vintage card that is universally acknowledged as legit, yet potentially a 1 of 1, an exception? Who knows. As with any 1 of 1, the card is only worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it (or one increment more than what the 2nd most aggressive bidder in an auction is willing to pay for it) - depending on your point of view.

I don't have a dog in this fight as I am not a rare back fan. Having said that, congrats on landing the Lowdermilk / Red Cross! It is obviously a cornerstone card and a card I believe will be appreciated as such in your collection!

I have no idea as to the value of the loudy card...but I agree w/brian...as a type collector I am most concerned with obtaining a given back in most sets. But as a somewhat advanced type collector...which I consider myself...there is definitely a premium to be placed on rare back/desirable front cards...esp in t206!!! But I also agree the larger value benefit is obtained with the common front rare back vs a hof'er w/same rare back.

I was talking to Lee about this very topic the other night.

Additionally... T207 will never achieve status anywhere near that of sets like t205-6...due to it's difficulty to complete and somewhat drab style/coloring...nor will most be scrambling to complete a back run either.

Who knows what will happen to this card in the future...valuewise...I just hope I don't lose my shirt!

Pete I think it is almost impossible for you to lose on that card unless you pull a jp and put it in another auction in 3 months , or maybe it could go for more you just never know ! I really think that over the past year has just been a complete saturation of all types of cards and with so much to choose from some stuff just didn't get what it should have, like all the T215 and your Loudy, not sure how the prices were on the other T207 red cross or if they went low as well. I would say the biggest shocker in strong prices was Wonka's brown Lenox still can't believe the tag on that wow !! And the T206 PSA Shag at $1700 was very strong, actually all the T206 went pretty deep that set is outta control !!

A VG Lowdy sold in Heritage in 2008 for $2,200. Pete paid $22,000 for his card, so that means he paid a 10x premium for the Red Cross back.

Brian makes a good point about t206 HOF/rare back combos, he wrote they are "not additive" but what I think he really meant is they are not multiplicative. For instance, in REA 2009 a T206 Red Hindu PSA 5 Walter Johnson went to 8.5k. A PSA 5 Red Hindu might be worth 5k, and a PSA 5 WJ might be worth 3.5k, thus an additive final price of 8.5k.

Contrast that to a Brown Lenox, which goes for 5x the price of a Black Lenox. That double-rarity is multiplicative. For the additive Red Hindu Johnson, the fronts and backs are being pursued by two different types of collectors (back collectors vs. set collectors) while for the multiplicative Brown Lenox, the two rare traits - Brown and Lenox - are both desired by back collectors.

So when a card has two desirable traits that both drive the price, the question of whether the value determined by those traits is additive or multiplicative is answered by whether both traits are desired by the same set of collectors.

In the case of the Red Cross Lowdy, there may have been some crossover where some of the set collectors are also buying Red Cross backs - making the final price neither purely additive or multiplicative but a morphing of two.

Guys in the end these cards are worth what on any given Sunday somebody will give you for them. If you really follow these cards for the most part they can be all over the place no matter how much reason or speculative know how behind them.

The biggest effect on price is trends and timing these can have a major overall effect on price. For example T210’s went off the charts a few years back so did T209’s. This was in large part due to two advanced collectors who were driving the market up on their search for completion of their respective sets. When they finished the cards dropped big time the recent T209’s in REA were a prime example of that.

Esoteric collecting can be risky, rare doesn’t always equal return. If the item is too obscure and the bidder pool gets too small due to cost or interest and item today can go for losses down the road. If you are in this for just the investment purpose you want to stay mainstream and or higher grade or a mixture of both. Meaning major tier HOF players (Ruth, Cobb, Jackson, Mantle, Gehrig etc.) or from major sets (T206, Goudey, T205, Topps, Bowman) this ensures a larger bidding pool and more interested eyes not limiting yourself to scholarly collectors and their wallets.

In regards to Pete’s investment into his T207 Lowdermilk I think he will do just fine.

I probably shouldn’t share this (as I’ve already most likely shown too much already LOL) but I was one of the under bidders on the card I went to the 14k range and if I hadn’t decided to shift funds in the 11th hour at 2am I was prepared to go to 20-25k plus on the card. The major deciding factor for me was that I already own a PSA 5 Lowdermilk and felt I would have more fun with some other items.

Now for my Brown Lenox anybody’s guess if I’m being honest the card went about 10k more than I expected I've discussed with Jim R in detail, but hey that’s the price. It was the last back I needed for my T206 back set in VGEX-EX and obviously I wasn’t the only person who needed it hence the final hammer. With about 20+ examples floating and with less than a handful in VGEX and with this being most likely the best one sometimes you have to bite the bullet and pay a bit more than you expect especially when it’s crossing that final card off the checklist.

If it’s any consolation to Pete every time I have paid more than I expected I did well very well years later.

Funny enough it’s generally the cards I think I got bargains on that I lose my shirt on...LOL

I’ll end with one great line from a very wealthy friend of mine who is an official real deal billionare. ( And no it's not Quan before you ask )

We were hanging out one night and we got to talking about things we enjoy, and we began to discuss something that I wasn’t into and didn’t understand and he wasn’t too into either for the record.

But I made the comment “why would anybody piss away cash into something like that or spend that kind of money on that” he simply smiled and said “because they can John” simple but it hit home and made sense all of this is relative guys. One man’s 18k is another guys $300 etc.

Well that’s my 20,000 feet view of the topic at hand from this hack collector what was it “advanced collector”.

Cheers,

John

P.S. When you become an advanced collector do you get a T-shirt or something?

Great post John, thanks for sharing all that!

I would just like to add that while I agree with you about mainstream being safe in terms of future value, I can also see the esoteric stuff taking off in value as the overall collecting pool becomes more card educated and the number of "scholarly" or "advanced" collectors becomes larger (relative to the size of the hobby). More and more information is available and shared on these types of cards through obviously the emergence of the online world. The AH's continual (and impressive) ability to uncover and offer up these rarities also sparks interest and makes collectors want to seek out this information.

Just my opinion.

When you eat 10 hamburgers at the blue door...you get a t-shirt...and I'm just 1 away!!!!!

I was under the impression, John, that you were the administrator/facilitator of the t-shirts?!

John has a lot of wisdom for us "youngstas". Rare backs like Brown Lenox or Red Cross may be speculative, but clearly hold a lot of investment potential and could easily double in value in 5-10 years.

I've won and lost on speculations like that, and no thanks, no longer interested. Especially with a large portion of my life savings in baseball cards, I want conservative cards with steadier prices and widespread demand, like HOF OJ's.

Thank you for the post, compelling conversation, and with the excitement of REA becoming eclipsed by time, I'm gonna sign off on the boards for a little bit (while still voting on BBCHOF candidates).

Congrats again on all the momentous pickups.

Regards

Jeff couldn’t agree more as the hobby becomes more educated esoteric items will increase you are dead on.

The very information age we live in will help much more information that can be learned in a few hours in front of a computer, which would have taken years via shows and worth of mouth/newsletters.

While I think the level of intelligence or knowledge will go up as never seen before prior in our hobby and therefore thrust demand of esoteric items up. I hate to say this there will always be more folks with blinders on willing to toss money at DP 1952 Mantles and T206 NM Cobbs vs. esoteric items. The bidding pool for esoteric will increase 10 fold but always be dwarfed by the more mainstream less difficult items.

As for T-Shirts I can’t be in charge I wouldn’t know to go crew neck or V-Neck here…

In regards to youngsters I don’t have all that much age under the belt yet to be called an old-timer yet at 36 still learning stuff daily, and I hope to be 66 still wanting and willing to learn.

Cheers,

John