I know this has been discussed before....but

As 2008 approaches for the Vintage card market, will we see a tough sellers market or a great buyers market?
From what i see i believe a recession may be in the works for us here in U.S.A.
With the Iraq war going in to its 5th year and oil and food prices at all time highs the middle class are getting hit very hard. On the east coast we pay $3.50 a gallon for gas and a gallon of milk is $5.50. My grocery bill is now 50% higher than it was in 2006. Consumers will start cutting back on a lot of things like going out to dinner or holding off buying a car until they really need it.

What impact will it have on card prices. I still say scarce and rare cards will still hold value and go up but the common cards will see a 25-35% drop. I am in NO way an expert but the signs are there. I think 2008-2010 will be rough.

As always...just my opinion.

Mark

I could totally see the price drop coming as well, in fact I think its already arrived.

Just how many of us "collectors" would be affected by a recession? Yes, it may be a great time to buy...but who will be able to at their current level? Luckily....if a recession hits...it doesn't affect me quite as much in my line of work. Just wondering how many on here would be dramatically effected...that would suck, price drop across the board on cards, but you can't buy them yourself...

I disagreed before, and I disagree now.
But heck, Im just disagreeable, I know.

Nothing is goin' down the sewer.
From time to time, people can jump at specific indicators,
and exclaim "the sky is fallin'"!
But it ain't.

The market is not in a free-fall,
Bullion prices are high and steady.
And what? Milk is $5.50/gal?
Drink whiskey!

Hey Gil...pretty soon the whisky will be cheaper than the milk but i can't give my daughter whisky so i take a shot and then pour her some milk.


Mark

Gil, you need to be a Hillbilly, like myself. Then, you could simply make your own whiskey!

Seriously, the card market has taken a "hit" of some scale EVERY year for the past dozen or so years around Christmas and the Holidays. Some years it is more of a hit than others and this year, with higher prices on everything else, prices have taken a bigger hit than normal.

I have always told collectors to save up money starting in the Fall for Dec./Jan. deals on eBay (and auction houses as well). :study: Too bad it always seems there is a card or cards I REALLY want right before December that I have to buy and never take my own advice.

This year, I did save a "little" for December (which is GONE now). Lee and I were both grabbing up several T206's with tougher backs on eBay - I ran out of money first (but, I did manage to buy 20 tough backs in a couple days at one stretch for nice prices!).

Some of it can be attributed to the time of year. Contrary to what Bush and his cronies would have you believe, the average American is not doing well econimically and I've seen numerous news shows where econimists are saying that we could go into a recession for the next year or two.

Where I work, sales are off big time. Not just for the Holidays, but for the entire year. This true pretty much across the board for all retail businesses.

As most people that know, I keep a very tight budget. Higher gas prices impact me to some extent, but I have a car I bought brand new in June 2006 and it only hit 11,000 miles last week. I get just under 30mpg, so I only have to fill up about every 3 weeks and costs about $25 (I rarely let the gauge get below 1/4 tank). Where I'm seeing a big impact is milk prices. I drink about 2 gallons a week. A gallon has gone up $1 in the past year. That means I spent an extra $100 on milk alone this year. Other food products also went up in price while wages have pretty much been depressed for the average person.

Then there is the whole sub-prime mortgage debacle.

So, no, things are not as good as Dubya and Vader want you to think.

Jay

So, the problem with the economy is milk prices then. I did not know that.
Guys, get yourselves some goats. The milk is free and natural.
No pasturized, homogenized, irradiated, fortified, watered down, etc.
And goats keep your property neat, while providing excellent fertilizer.
Plus they provide a continuous, almost free meat source.
You will have to find a butcher whio will accept a part of the animal as full payment for his services.
But look for one who knows how to make good liverwurst (ask for a sample).
I'd say "bring 'em to Scott", but he is a bit far for you yankees, even at 30 mpg.

Jay-
Envious of your gas costs would be an understatement. I live 40 miles north of Atlanta, my office is pretty close to downtown...I work for a construction company that "recycles" roads...so my work takes me all over Georgia, and at times Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennesse..I average about $300 weekly in gas. If a recession truly hits hard, the private firms we do work for (big parking lots) such as Home Depot, etc, I'm sure they would vastly scale back the work available...but things like the GA DOT, FLA DOT...they'll pull money from somewhere else to not fall behind on road repairs...for the most part I wouldn't be "hugely" affected..and I guess I'd have to try and buy up cards at cheaper prices when possible.

Where I live (Liberty NY) - milk is already more expensive than beer. A 24 Oz. can of Miller sells for 0.99 plus tax & deposit ($1.12 total) while a pint of milk is $1.29.

Its all Al Gore. I knew his global warming idea wouldn't work.
Now Australia, the world's No.2 producer of milk, behind us, is in another drought year.
Resulting in significantly reduced production and a world wide shortage.
And he has got this country using up our best feedstock, corn, as an alternative fuel source in his evil warm the globe scheme.

My wife works for Land O' Lakes and dairy prices in general
have gone mad this year (good if you're selling bad if you're buying).
Part of the rise in price is due to the cost to feed farm animals (corn feed);
with E85 many farmers get more money to sell their corn for ethanol and in turn
the price rises for feed corn to feed the cows, pigs and chickens.

Also if you look on your food labels one of the first three ingredients for
many foods is high-fructose corn syrup; so in turn prices of cereal, soda (pop
in Minnesota),
ketchup..most foods in the middle of
the grocery store, all rise and we all pay more for groceries!



sdbh

Sean, I always thought only we "Hillbillies" called sodas pop!

most of the Midwest does. I think it's an area from Michigan to Dakotas and probably no further south than Iowa.

Jay

....and Ontario.

I was at Target in California and ordered a pop...the girl stared at me for a few seconds and came back with a popcorn...I guess I will need a soda now.

It took me a long time to make the make the change when I lived in CA. I always used to give people CA a bad time for calling it soda, because until the 60s, a soda was a fountain drink you ordered with whatever flavoring you wanted or just plain soda water. Now I use either one.

Jay

A little East coast language quiz...



Soda = Pop

Grinders = hogie

Package store = liquor store

(in CT there is no sale of alcohol of any kind on Sunday, during the rest of the 6 days package stores can only be open from 9:00 AM to 8:00 PM) And they I.D. everyone whether you look 21 or 81. Our "Package stores" are the only place to buy beer , hard liquor, Wine.


Mark

Grinder=Hogie=Hero=Sub

Hogie is pretty much an East Coast term too, as is Hero. The rest of country calls them Subs.

Jay

Mark, in VA you can buy beer and wine at grocery stores and convenient stores. However all the hard stuff is sold only at "ABC" stores (Alcohol and Beverage Control) that are state run.

I am certainly no economist. So, please feel free to dismiss my view here (as always).
But I believe that many think that when the economy is doing poorly, it is best to put your money in hard assets, such as bullion. Therefore, in a bad economy we often see precious metals prices rise - as we do see now.

An attempt to take the analysis further, and conclude that since the general perception is that the economy is "bad", there will be less money spent on baseball cards; may not be accurate.
This is because baseball cards are another "hard asset".
An alternative to bullion.

Not as widely respected, but gaining in recognition.

So, there may be offsetting factors in play here.
- less money, if the perception is a reality
- baseball cards viewed as a hedge against an unstable economy


How do you view this?

And Mark, regarding this forecast:" I still say scarce and rare cards will still hold value and go up but the common cards will see a 25-35% drop".

If the baseball card market is adversely affected by the economy, the initial effect which I project is similar to yours. Specifically:
- scarce and rare cards will still hold value and go up
- common cards will see a drop --> in mid grades, however, will see an improvement in low grades (because of less money available), and high grades (for reasons similar to scarce and rare cards - high grade is a type of rarity).


?

(please see previous post)

Gil

I believe Scarce and Rare cards do have recession proof value as gold and silver. The thing with Gold and Silver, when you get a huge price increase like we have seen there is always the risk of buying at the top.

Its an election year so you will see all these politicians try and stop the economy from falling in to a recession and give out rebate checks. Its only a bandaid on an open wound, jobs count not a few hundred $ in someones pocket. With oil at $101 and people losing jobs along with a huge housing downturn we will have a very bad summer.

That will be a great time to buy cards...trust me!!!


Mark

I agree, at this level I am a metals seller, not a buyer.
However, I think that it is always the time to buy the right cards.
The problem is to determine what is "right" in a changing market.

If my forecast is accurate, and low grade cards increase in value as the financial crunch heightens, then what to buy now is low grade cards (of key players - such as a t206 Johnson portrait I was looking at).

And what to sell now is mid grade cards for the same reason.

Timing the sale of the low grade cards to coincide with their appreciation, and the forcasted drop in mid-grade pricing is a key. Along with positioning yourself at that time in the falling valued mid-grade cards, which are sure to rebound, as the economy turns around.


Just the type of wheeling and dealing that is certain to crush an unsophisticated trader like myself. But it is fun to forecast and watch too. I have been correct before. And incorrect too.

Collectibles have been a god hedge against inflation and that's something that has been ingnored in this economic downturn. People have less money to spend and things are getting more expensive, especially things like gas, heating fuel and food (especially products made with corn)

Jay

UhOh ……

"Gil, you need to be a Hillbilly, like myself. Then, you could simply make your own whiskey!"


“things are getting more expensive, especially things like gas, heating fuel and food (especially products made with corn)”


What is shine made outta? I thought it was corn!
Don't tell me the trickle down effect is cutting into the trickle of this staple, which is an important part of this country's well being.