The State of the Market 2011

Hi all,

Interested in the perceptions of people on this. It has been raised recently that some auctions in 2011 (pre-REA) seemed to generally have strong results. In terms of REA, I have seen some comments that prices were around "market" these days, but there were definitely significant soft prices too.

I think it is safe to say that from Fall 2008 through 2010, prices on pre-war cards were way off their 2006-early 2008 levels. And I know that we are still far below that now. But in terms of the slump of late 2008-2010, do you think the 2011 auction results show us anything?

Are we on the rebound? Are we still in just as bad a slump? Do you think there will be a return to the prices we saw 3+ years ago?

(There is no right or wrong in this - I'm just interested in the perception of Board members from their own perspective and observations!)

High grade material from the most mainstream sets (t206, t205, n172, n173) has held its value throughout the crises, while t206 rarities (cobb/cobb, wags, plank) have soared.

Most 19th century material retained its value, oblivious to macro-economic circumstances.

E cards fell as the crises softened demand due to a paucity of buyers, and they have yet to fully recover.

Post-war cards are beginning to recover, especially PSA 10's, which had the bottom fall out as set registry competition became depleted. Note the 55 Topps Goodwin&co prices.

Non-HOF collector's rarities have softened - i.e. obscure cards of commons or minor leaguers that are one of a kind or one of two, etc. Witness Kbats commons or the Hess card in REA.

Mid-grade faded OJ's have weakened, witness the Bid McPhee and John Ward in REA.

The lesson learned over the last five years is that T206, T205, N172, N173, and '52 and '55 Topps are the sets of their eras with the most fortitude during challenging economic times.

Just my take...

nice synopsis, jamie...I agree! And I might add...that a few years ago, when anything unusual was selling for big bucks and many cards were thought to be scarcer than they really are...like E92 crofts, e99, e100, e107 for a while, d310's, d311's, just to name a few...these types to me have plummeted 1/2 of their value or more since then...t206 rare backs and rarities have skyrocketed...and common star cards like cobb are off almost 50% of their value in some cases...ie a green cobb in vg sold for $4500 at one point on ebay...now this is more accurately a $2500-$3k card...just my little window!

Right, Pete, and I forgot to mention rare backs!

One more thing is that I think in 2007 post-war cards were in a bubble. Like the Nasdaq, it collapsed and probably never will return. The next bubble forming is in T206's. They could go to unseen levels if the economy takes off. Then find another collapse similar to what happened to post-war stuff. Last man standing will be 19th century cards, the most conservative investment there is in this hobby. Though maybe anyone reading this projection ten years from now will just read it and laugh - if you haven't already

I agree post war will never get to the point it was especially as the baby boomers who grew up in that era keep selling instead of buying, it's hard to believe they will go any lower but if it isn't a Mantle could go for any amount and even some of his stuff is dirt cheap compared to what it was , the demand simply doesn't outweigh the supply. As for T206, the hottest set on the planet it is so tough to say. It seems that each week a new collector begins to work on the set or hof players and eventually a back run. T205 seems to be the other set that has become very popular and getting good prices. How many of these main stream collectors cross over to E, D, W or other series is a mystery.
Lately it seems the scarcer cards are going for great prices ( other than T206 )and I just don't see how that can last, as someone else said would've been great to pick up one of the T208 Macks what a great card at great prices, I'm assuming those are the ones from last year set breaks in REA and Legendary.
What I keep asking myself is where do all these auction houses keep getting all these amazing cards ? For stuff that is supposed to be so tough to get it sure keeps coming up month after month and has to be tough for many to decide what to go after and also set limits on what they will spend and get the best cards at the best price. Seems a saturation is going on right now and until it dries up a little bit should remain a great time to buy, to bad I'm broke !!!!!!!!!!!!! But what a year it's been so far !!!!!!!!!

Hi Guys,

Thanks for the great comments - I agree with a lot of what has been written here.

To Jamie, just so I better understand your very first comment - do you mean by "high grade" the very highest grades? And by held their prices, do you mean they never did go down in the 2008-2010 period, or do you mean they went down and then stabilized through the course of that period?

One thing that came to mind for me was that T206 commons (with common backs) in PSA 6 and 7 grades often sold in 2008-2010 for around half of what those cards drew in 2006-2007...at least I thought so (I haven't done any VCP research to verify that, so maybe I'm wrong...).

I especially agree with what you guys have said about E-cards and rare backs. To me, the drop in prices of E-cards represented a great opportunity, which is why I started my Dockman set. Even with a few finds of these cards, most E-card sets are still WAY scarcer than any mainstream tobacco cards (possible exception 1915 CJ).

Blair, I totally agree with your assessment on the T206 common back prices. I would say the prices have dropped from 20-50%, with the biggest hit coming on the higher end. It seems right now the easiest cards to move at levels close to 06-07 are VG.

As for the tough backs they have definately went nuts, but I think alot of that comes from people looking for a little challenge out of the set, since obtaining the cards are fairly easy.

T202 prices have almost dropped in half, thank goodness I was selling at the peak and now back buying again.

Lee

Lee

Blair,

I meant psa 9's and 10's for t206, and psa 8's for t205.

I wish you luck with the E cards and very savvy possible pickups if that market ever recovers. The downside is those cards are of poor artistic merit and that deters collectors. Aesthetics still count. E cards and post-war cards are a full-scale bet on a large enough economic recovery to drive new collectors into them. Only then will the appetite return, for instance if there is another tech boom as some anticipate. Otherwise, I don't see a catalyst. But what do I know?

All the type cards could be great investments in the long run, they just aren't cards I feel comfortable owning. And of course you have to love what you are collecting and now that I've gone to 19th Cen I could never go back. 20th cen cards are so oxymoronically "passe" compared to 19th century.

jbonie wrote:Blair,

I meant psa 9's and 10's for t206, and psa 8's for t205.

I wish you luck with the E cards and very savvy possible pickups if that market ever recovers. The downside is those cards are of poor artistic merit and that deters collectors. Aesthetics still count. E cards and post-war cards are a full-scale bet on a large enough economic recovery to drive new collectors into them. Only then will the appetite return, for instance if there is another tech boom as some anticipate. Otherwise, I don't see a catalyst. But what do I know?

Hi Jamie,

I thought you might be addressing the very highest grades - I'm not on the pulse of that, but I can see how it could hold well, given the incredibly short supply of such cards.

The E-card thing...who knows where it will go? For me, as a born collector, I crave a bit of scarcity and a challenge. When someone tells me there are 250 PSA graded T206 Benders, but only 15 Dockman and only 5 Crofts, I pretty much automatically want the Crofts and the Dockman, even at higher prices (which I expect under those circumstances). As long as there are a few like me, I think E-cards won't crap out entirely. And given the small supply, any kind of demand increase could result in big price increases. (But I don't really buy to sell...I'm just happier with my cards when I believe I got in at a low point ).

Blair,

No question, getting in at a low point is often a good idea - you're a contrarian! Dockman and Crofts share the same front as several other E cards, so the nature of the play is that they are really scarce backs. But look at all the variations - people will pay through the nose for something that would seem trivial to someone outside the hobby - red hindus for ten times the price of a brown hindu, brown lenox for six times the price of a black lenox. Or n173's - black mounts, red mounts, blue mounts - all for multiples the price! Would I shell out for that? No! But the hobby has taken on a life of its own. Sherry Magie - why would you want a card where the guys' name is mispelled? You'll have to ask John. But I admire that card. Why? Probably because everybody else does!

jbonie wrote:Blair,

No question, getting in at a low point is often a good idea - you're a contrarian! Dockman and Crofts share the same front as several other E cards, so the nature of the play is that they are really scarce backs. But look at all the variations - people will pay through the nose for something that would seem trivial to someone outside the hobby - red hindus for ten times the price of a brown hindu, brown lenox for six times the price of a black lenox. Or n173's - black mounts, red mounts, blue mounts - all for multiples the price! Would I shell out for that? No! But the hobby has taken on a life of its own. Sherry Magie - why would you want a card where the guys' name is mispelled? You'll have to ask John. But I admire that card. Why? Probably because everybody else does!

LOL - we collectors are all insane in our own ways .

I love the scarce back angle...hahaha...so if E-cards are cold, but scarce backs are hot, I market my Dockmans as "incredibly scarce backed cards...tougher back than Broadleaf, Uzit and Lenox...ultra-low pop!!!"

Hey don't get me wrong - you've posted some major steals on this board. I still remember that lot you one real cheap last year in REA, for instance. If you've got the talent to bargain hunt, then go for it! As for me, I try to find cards I think are amazing and pay a somewhat fair price. Everyone needs their own style. As the British say, it's horses for courses! (En lieux of the Kentucky Derby).

Enjoy!

jbonie wrote:Hey don't get me wrong - you've posted some major steals on this board. I still remember that lot you one real cheap last year in REA, for instance. If you've got the talent to bargain hunt, then go for it! As for me, I try to find cards I think are amazing and pay a somewhat fair price. Everyone needs their own style. As the British say, it's horses for courses! (En lieux of the Kentucky Derby).

Enjoy!

I'm still trying to compensate for all the '89 Donruss packs and '90 Score factory sets that are in my parents' basement .

Almost all my birthday presents were sealed factory sets! And I still somehow managed to have a relatively happy childhood!

I'm not sure why E cards are down but don't think it will last forever. Blair did you get the Crofts Cocoa Bender in Heritage I couldn't go after because of the T215 ? Very nice cards and when and if you market them make sure to let me know ! The T206 are like crack, and E and D and other T's more like fine wine. I really am curious to see how the T206 cards pan out over the next few years, and if they start to fall off will the other issues fall off worse or start to be more in demand ? Since the red cross were all T issues I was surprised they didn't go higher but very happy they didn't. A lot of people like to put together sets and other than T206 or T205 unless you have a lot of patience many other issues wont work out if you need a weekly or monthly fix.

ChiefBenderForever wrote:Blair did you get the Crofts Cocoa Bender in Heritage I couldn't go after because of the T215 ? Very nice cards and when and if you market them make sure to let me know !

Yessir, that was me (scan below). These cards - Crofts Cocoa - are almost always horribly centered or miscut. That was mainly why this one caught me eye...one of the best looking HOF ones I've seen offered. Plus I like Bender too .

You have my word that if I ever have a tough Bender card to sell, I'll contact you first!

Speaking of the state of the market, I thought that Heritage auction in April had quite high prices overall. I placed bids on a bunch of lots, but the Bender was the only card out of those that I thought was still well-priced at the end.

blair...dockmans are scarcer than broadleaf, uzit...lenox backed t206's? I think not!

ullmandds wrote:blair...dockmans are scarcer than broadleaf, uzit...lenox backed t206's? I think not!

Hi Pete,

I'm pretty much 100% sure of it.

I should explain. My first point is that Dockman cards (population per subject) are scarcer than most people probably think. Looking at Hall-of-Famers from the set graded by PSA, the numbers are about 10-20. Second, and this is the most important factor, there are only 40 subjects in the set.

Compare to Broadleaf - the 208 cards in the 350-only series are all avaialble with a BL back. So are all 6 super-printed cards...the most printed cards in all of T206. So are the 48 cards in the 460-only series. So you have 256 regular cards and 6 super prints avaialble with a BL back. Basically if each subject with a BL back was 7 times scarcer than each Dockman subject, the backs would then be roughly equally scarce. I think there is no chance that is the case.

"Rarity" in T206 is relative only to T206. Remember, most people think there are over 100 T206 Wagners out there. Pretty much every Wagner in an E-card set has a lower population than that.

Just to pluck out another example, the T206 O'Hara St. Louis variation. Issued only with one back - Polar Bear. Considered by T206 collectors to be a key "rarity" of the set. Between PSA and SGC, they count over 160 of them graded. No joke - over 160. Methinks T206 collectors have a different scale for rarity...

I don't mind sharing some financial info, if it's helpful to everyone in terms of assessing the state of the market for The Monster. I've been actively collecting the set since mid-March of this year: I've acquired 64 commons (the ones that list for $60 in EX condition in Beckett's) and five HOF's; Fred Clarke, Home Run Baker, Three-Finger Brown, Mathewson, and McGraw. The VAST majority of the backs are Piedmont or Sweet Caps. I think I have one Old Mill, one Soveriegn (on the back of Gavvy Cravath - I was quite excited about that one), and a handful of Polar Bear's. All of the cards are graded, either SGC 30 to 50 or PSA 3 (I think have one PSA 4). I have no Southern Leaguers yet. And I'm averaging $46.48 per card over the first 69.

How would that stack up to what people were paying in '06?

And that's all on ebay, BTW. Except for three I got from bowlingshoeguy here on the forum.

blair...I guess what my thought process was was that if you are looking for a specific front with a bl, uzit or lenox back you will have a much harder time finding it than any e92 dockman hof'er front...as all backs will be the same?! I may be wrong...not sure! Compelling argument.

I do agree caramels are exponentially more difficult than t206's in general...hmmm!

ullmandds wrote:blair...I guess what my thought process was was that if you are looking for a specific front with a bl, uzit or lenox back you will have a much harder time finding it than any e92 dockman hof'er front...as all backs will be the same?! I may be wrong...not sure! Compelling argument.

I agree with you 100% on that!

t206s are like coca cola or ibm...good ole reliable. i am surprised at how the not so scarce backs have really jumped the last couple years while we're supposedly in a down time. must be a residual effect.

caramels have taken a big hit as i see the veteran e guys chasing t sets, must be some kind of trend. a nice caramel pose still gives me the tinkle tho.

cccc wrote:a nice caramel pose still gives me the tinkle tho.

Yeah ... you should probably see a doctor just in case. ...to be safe.