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staggering heritage auction...

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Post by cccc Mon Oct 18, 2010 9:04 pm

just checked out the first few pages...like a mini REA auction. a bunch of 19th cent, high grade E cards (another e90-1 set is broken up), high grade D304 set, zeenut and M thorpe, t206 wagner magie etc. LOADED~! etc etc

too bad the BP is 19.5% and there's a CA tax...so almost 30% premium Rolling Eyes ...guess i'll be on the sideline

http://sports.ha.com/common/search_results.php?N=55+793+794+1577+4294953923

edit: blair (e90-1 speaker sgc50 for ya bananarama )...ray (t204 johnson psa 4 Twisted Evil ). personally i love the t222 walter johnson
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Post by rholmes Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:32 pm

I haven't had a chance to go through everything yet, but I did see the T204 WJ. Sadly, I probably won't get anywhere near it ( Sad ) unless I win or robber something in the next two weeks. What I need you to find me, Q, is a nice beater, or a piece of a nice beater...
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Post by terjung Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:43 pm

Great auction from HA. Seems like their signature auctions have gotten substantially stronger over the past year and a half.

Anybody here consign anything?
(I consigned the E107 Willis.)

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Post by sabrjay Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:51 pm

Imagine how much better their auctions would be if the BP wasn't so high. It's got cost them more than a few choice items and collections
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Post by jbonie Mon Oct 18, 2010 11:38 pm

HA is definitely an auction house to be reckoned with. I have no idea how they got so much amazing material, but obviously people like them. They do get good prices! Brian, what was behind your decision to go with Heritage?

Obviously the extra 2% in BP didn't hamper the consigners.

Looks like a lot of outstanding stuff is gonna be for sale in the next month with HA, Legendary and SCP all going.
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Post by cccc Tue Oct 19, 2010 12:06 am

i gotta think there's a BP refund in there somewhere for high value items...consigners are not gonna give up 2-5%.
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Post by terjung Tue Oct 19, 2010 12:07 am

jbonie wrote:Brian, what was behind your decision to go with Heritage?


I was considering selling the E107 Willis and saw that they were going to be selling the only known single-signed Vic Willis baseball. I figured that the two seemed to go nicely together and thought they may even be able to list them adjacent to one another. It turned out that their cards and memorabilia end on successive days, so listing adjacent to one another was not feasible. They did cross reference them, though.

Anyway, HA had a couple of E107 HOFers in last fall's auction too (a Chesbro and Flick, as memory serves). Given that they would give the E107 Willis a "featured item" categorization, give me a 0% seller's fee, cross reference the card with the Willis baseball, and given HA's recent prominence - at least in the E107 world (including selling an E107 Matty in Baltimore), it seemed like the appropriate place to list it. We'll see. Here's hoping for a good result!

The rest of the auction seems really strong to me! I agree. It does kind of feel like a brother to REA.
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Post by Bosox Blair Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:45 am

Thanks for the heads-up, Quan! I would have missed this b/c I have never bid with these guys. Now, let the rationalizing and counting of pennies begin!
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Post by jbonie Tue Oct 19, 2010 3:53 pm

Brian,

That makes sense to me. Personally, I hadn't even considered Heritage when consigning my T216 Wagner. It's going in Legendary, I think Mastro's stuff might bring a lot of attention to the auction. But hopefully folks will still have some money left after this Heritage shindig!

I'll be real curious to see how prices end up in the first "post-QE2" auction. I am betting we'll see prices up about 10% across the board - not because the cards are worth 10% more, but because the value of the dollar is now 10% less. So we should see some pretty strong prices. At least, that is my guess.
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Post by mwieder Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:07 pm

jbonie wrote:
I'll be real curious to see how prices end up in the first "post-QE2" auction. I am betting we'll see prices up about 10% across the board - not because the cards are worth 10% more, but because the value of the dollar is now 10% less. So we should see some pretty strong prices. At least, that is my guess.

I'm not a financial guy, so please explain - if my money stays in the US and everything costs the same and my salary is the same, wouldn't the change of the valuation in the dollar not effect prices? I don't suddenly have 10% more dollars to spend on cards...
I thought devaluation of the dollar mostly matters when international currency is being exchanged?

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Post by cccc Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:25 pm

i'm not a money guy, math whiz, or even good artist...but in this case maybe jamie is referencing that (richer) people would take a lil out of their other investments (gold, euro, etc) and exchange them for USD. i know that's been the case with my european cousins and australian friends. they all think an NYC vacation is so cheap and buying watches over here is a steal.

edit: from my pm's with jamie he's a sharp guy and up on current news about the market. i would have no problem leaving him all my 1989 donrusses and watch him turn it into a t206 wagner.
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Post by ullmandds Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:31 pm

definitely some amazing stuff in there. it blows me away those collectors/investors who pay 4-5 figures for caramel commons in high grade!!!!
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Post by JohnnyHarmonica Tue Oct 19, 2010 10:22 pm

Unreal stuff, are a lot of people just unloading lately or has it always been like this ? Where do these auction houses keep getting all this sick stuff or does it just keep recycling every few years ? I know last year everyone was saying how Caramels have dried up and now this year they are everywhere and keep going for lower and lower but these higher grades will get decent prices I would think ! That Bender is SICK I probably won't even bother to bid.............
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Post by Bosox Blair Tue Oct 19, 2010 10:33 pm

mwieder wrote:
jbonie wrote:
I'll be real curious to see how prices end up in the first "post-QE2" auction. I am betting we'll see prices up about 10% across the board - not because the cards are worth 10% more, but because the value of the dollar is now 10% less. So we should see some pretty strong prices. At least, that is my guess.

I'm not a financial guy, so please explain - if my money stays in the US and everything costs the same and my salary is the same, wouldn't the change of the valuation in the dollar not effect prices? I don't suddenly have 10% more dollars to spend on cards...
I thought devaluation of the dollar mostly matters when international currency is being exchanged?

Well, the answer to this, like so many other complex questions is...it depends. Matt's comments are fundamentally correct, but overstated. Prices can and will be affected where international trade is involved somewhere in the equation. Prices on imported products might well change for the worse in the US. Prices on US-made products where all the components are US-sourced are less likely to change, unless increased international demand for the particular product (as a result of the lower US dollar) results in reduced supply and corresponding increased prices on these items too. As Quan points out, this latter one might apply likewise to collectibles sold in US funds. Other countries enjoying relatively strong currencies at present (like Canada, for example) may view items for sale in the US now as a relative bargain when compared to past pricing after exchange rates.

I've thrown Canada out as an example here because there are a whole bunch of places in the world that (in general) could not care less about baseball cards (ie. Australia, parts of Europe, etc.). Overall though, if the primary market for the item is the US - as I believe the case is with these items - then a weak US economy and weak currency more likely forebodes lower prices...as a review of prices realized on VCP for late 2008 to 2010 will show...in general.
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Post by mwieder Tue Oct 19, 2010 11:59 pm

Blair - thanks for the clarification!

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Post by jbonie Wed Oct 20, 2010 12:20 am

Guys,

The answer I can give is, that since we have a fiat currency, which is not backed by anything in particular, the more money the government prints, the less that money will be worth in relation to the goods it is trying to purchase. Right now we have a situation where the Federal Reserve is "printing" money and using it to purchase treasury bonds. This can be a reasonable way to re-inflate the economy, but may cause other problems like asset bubbles by lowering borrowing rates - that remains to be seen.

So generally when the economy is bad, prices drop and the value of the dollar increases. The Fed is printing money to prevent that from happening. That's why QE2 announcements sent prices for stocks, gold, etc., higher, because the value of a dollar dropped due to traders realizing there'd be more dollars in circulation.

So let's say the Fed doubled the amount of dollars in circulation. That would effectively double the price of all products, assets, baseball cards, etc. That's if all else remained the same - there can be other factors like demand. Right now we are in a deflationary environment, which is not good for the value of hard assets like cards. But if we wind up entering an inflationary environment due to our enormous national debt/obligations, that would help the price of cards.

Hope that better explains it - or at the very least, doesn't confuse you further Razz
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Post by Bosox Blair Wed Oct 20, 2010 1:26 am

jbonie wrote:Guys,

The answer I can give is, that since we have a fiat currency, which is not backed by anything in particular, the more money the government prints, the less that money will be worth in relation to the goods it is trying to purchase. Right now we have a situation where the Federal Reserve is "printing" money and using it to purchase treasury bonds. This can be a reasonable way to re-inflate the economy, but may cause other problems like asset bubbles by lowering borrowing rates - that remains to be seen.

So generally when the economy is bad, prices drop and the value of the dollar increases. The Fed is printing money to prevent that from happening. That's why QE2 announcements sent prices for stocks, gold, etc., higher, because the value of a dollar dropped due to traders realizing there'd be more dollars in circulation.

So let's say the Fed doubled the amount of dollars in circulation. That would effectively double the price of all products, assets, baseball cards, etc. That's if all else remained the same - there can be other factors like demand. Right now we are in a deflationary environment, which is not good for the value of hard assets like cards. But if we wind up entering an inflationary environment due to our enormous national debt/obligations, that would help the price of cards.

Hope that better explains it - or at the very least, doesn't confuse you further Razz

Hi Jamie,

Your point focusses on inflation. With inflation, you have to consider the particular asset in question. In times of general inflation (with associated rising prices and reduced spending power) consumers are known to forego purchases of non-essentials and/or luxury items. With an item like a baseball card, with only a market value and no intrinsic value, I think most economists would predict a downward market price in times of general inflation.

In simple terms, if the cost of meat and veg doubles, no Cobb for you and me! Laughing

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Post by JohnnyHarmonica Wed Oct 20, 2010 2:13 am

I kind of see what you guys are saying but bottom line is as always 'only worth what someone is willng to pay' and if two people want it really bad could be outrageous but if nobody fighting for it will go lower, simple economics !!
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Post by jbonie Wed Oct 20, 2010 4:18 am

So one way to.see it.is if.the price of.everyrhing doubled, your salary would, too, and thus the price of cards.

And Quan, thanx for the compliments, I suppose I am sharp. But we all make stupid mistakes sometimes Smile Just when I think Im the exception is when I'm most likely to screw up bigtime!
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Post by Bosox Blair Wed Oct 20, 2010 5:00 am

jbonie wrote:So one way to.see it.is if.the price of.everyrhing doubled, your salary would, too, and thus the price of cards.


If only...sadly that is not how inflation has ever worked.

What you are talking about is hyperinflation. Historically it is the inability of domestic household income to keep up with extreme price increases that acts as a form of control on price increases - nobody can pay the asking price, so it must come down.

Consider also that most societies have a significant number of people on fixed incomes, contractually agreed incomes, etc. There is no upside to inflation for these incomes - just a decline in spending power.

I think it is very telling that history shows us the highest market prices ever for baseball cards were achieved when the Dow Jones was at an all time high and U.S. inflation was well-controlled and low (between 2% and less than 4% annually). These things go hand-in-hand with consumer confidence and a feeling of affluence. Card prices crashed when the Dow crashed and have recovered even more slowly.


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Post by cccc Wed Oct 20, 2010 5:56 am

hey--you guys are getting too technical...and making me feel bad for being poor and dumb!

i don't think the card market will have any sharp upswing anymore like a few years back. with vcp everybody know market prices and no one's going to overpay...if anything they're bidding less than the last guy just to be safe if the card is not that tough to find.

jamie, i'll be expecting some hot tips. can't get rich and leave your buddy behind Suspect
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Post by jbonie Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:21 am

Inflation now is at 1.5%, even lower than your aforementioned time period of 2006-2007. Yet the Dow was at 13000. Cards went up with the stock market, just like the internet boom of the late 1990's. The Dow has bounced 10% in the last coiple months - buying mainly due.to.QE2. Dollar has,dropped ten percent. I'm sorry if I'm not eloquent enough to explain the correlation here but you'll see soon enough that, unless the Dow weakens in November, you'll see strong prices across the board in these next few.auctions.

Q, wish I could help you get rich but I don't have the first clue! I just buy what I like. Of course there's two ways to go - super rare beaters or high grade stuff. I prefer the high grade stuff beAcause it presents so well but plenty of folks like the uber-rare stuff. Take the red cross lowdermilk, that's a card many find amazing but while very interesting, it's something I wouldn't bid on. I just want great cards of great players and that's enough for me.

Blair, they say if you lay a thousand economists end to end, they still couldn't reach a conclusion. I think thats about where we're at Smile
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Post by Bosox Blair Wed Oct 20, 2010 7:07 am

jbonie wrote:Inflation now is at 1.5%, even lower than your aforementioned time period of 2006-2007. Yet the Dow was at 13000. Cards went up with the stock market, just like the internet boom of the late 1990's. The Dow has bounced 10% in the last coiple months - buying mainly due.to.QE2. Dollar has,dropped ten percent. I'm sorry if I'm not eloquent enough to explain the correlation here but you'll see soon enough that, unless the Dow weakens in November, you'll see strong prices across the board in these next few.auctions.

Q, wish I could help you get rich but I don't have the first clue! I just buy what I like. Of course there's two ways to go - super rare beaters or high grade stuff. I prefer the high grade stuff beAcause it presents so well but plenty of folks like the uber-rare stuff. Take the red cross lowdermilk, that's a card many find amazing but while very interesting, it's something I wouldn't bid on. I just want great cards of great players and that's enough for me.

Blair, they say if you lay a thousand economists end to end, they still couldn't reach a conclusion. I think thats about where we're at Smile

Hey Jamie,

Putting all the rest aside, I'll sum up by saying I think we are in agreement that there is some correlation between the strength of the Dow and the card market (at least in the sense that I think generally stronger Dow should mean stronger card prices...though I believe we have seen some lag in the card prices moving up...and Quan could be right in that the highs may not be so high this time around...I think consumers are more cautious now, but hey I could be wrong on that!)

I am about the furthest thing from an economist you could imagine, though I did have to suffer through my share of classes to get a business degree! I'm sure my old profs would be astounded to hear that I retained enough to even participate in this discussion... scratch


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Post by Bosox Blair Wed Oct 20, 2010 8:06 am

JohnnyHarmonica wrote:I kind of see what you guys are saying but bottom line is as always 'only worth what someone is willng to pay' and if two people want it really bad could be outrageous but if nobody fighting for it will go lower, simple economics !!

Hi Johnny,

In an auction, an item is worth one bid increment more than the second guy is willing to pay (this might be less than the winner was willing to pay) Very Happy .

You make the good point that for any one lot, the price is really set by two guys...and who knows their circumstances? But the economic stuff is useful for trying to explain/predict very general market trends.

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Post by cccc Wed Oct 20, 2010 4:44 pm

blair,

with everything said, but in a vaccuum...it comes down to whether you want the speaker bad enough Laughing (imo it'll go lower than what it would've fetched a few years back...so you got that going).
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