The recent fall of the Hobby

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The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by ullmandds on Thu Oct 06, 2011 2:23 pm

Aside from ultra rare T206 backs...and other super rare and desirable cards...it's my observation that practically all other "types" of cards values have dramatically fallen off the last few years...kinda mirroring the rest of the financial markets.

So the Uzits, Drums, Red Hindu's, Brown Lennoxes...analagous to Apple stock...and Gold...have continued into the stratosphere...while practically every other type...All D cards, most E cards, common T cards have plummeted in some cases to 1/10th of their previous sales prices.

For example...a bunch of D310's sold this week on ebay...some as low as $40...where these commons were selling over $300 a few years ago. D359's...both types are cheap...D304's are cheap...it's a great time to be buying some baseball cards these days guys!
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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by Bosox Blair on Thu Oct 06, 2011 7:23 pm

I think I agree, but it does depend on where you place your starting point.

I will easily agree with your proposition if your starting point was pre-Fall 2008.

The situation is more tricky, I think, if you are talking about where the prices have gone from Fall 2008 to present.

For example, I noted somewhere else on a thread in the last month that I registered to bid in the most recent Goodwin auction because I had some interest in about 12 card lots (none of them were T206). When I "value" cards these days I rely heavily on VCP results from 2009 to present. Every single lot was bid over my valuation on the closing day before OT even started. I just logged out.

In the Sportscardlink auction I got way outbid on W600s and other lots I thought went way over "value".

I also got killed on some lots, including E125s at Legendary in August that went far beyond my aggressive (I thought) bids.

Soooooo...not sure...
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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by sabrjay on Fri Oct 07, 2011 12:33 am

The market is similar to what I saw in the early 80s when prices crashed. It was a great time to be buying and allowed to but together a very nice collection on the cheap. I was I had the extra money to be buying up stuff right now but there is the trip to Venice for our belated honeymoon that needs to be paid for first.

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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by smtjoy on Fri Oct 07, 2011 2:17 pm

I would agree for the vintage market, other than the ultra rare everything is down, and some a lot. I started working on a E93 set in SGC 40-50 in 2006, most of my purchases from 2006-08 I can pickup for half price now, its hurts to see my losses in VCP's my collection. Most exhibits are down too but not nearly as much with some of the harder to get cards not down at all and still increasing in value. Two whales jumped into exhibits in 2008 and that made prices crazy for a bit on highest graded ones but they are mostly done and prices have settled. On some of the type cards I collect, most are down pretty big, I was looking at E107 in 07 and it was hard to even find a beat up common under 1k, they really took a dive but look to have bottomed out and are gaining ground again. Where as the really hard to get E107 have done nothing but go up. I find that Zeenuts have not changed much in price but then I think they are underpriced in the first place and had no where to go but up. M101-4/5 have been all over the place with some of the scarce backs down a bunch and others up a lot, its a thinly collected area so one new bidder or one less can really change the prices.

I also collect Clemente cards and I think the 1950's-70's market is in a lot worse shape, almost all cards are down in nearly every grade, the superstars have held up better but all the graded commons are taking a bath. I think they are getting hit by the financial crisis as well as exploding POP reports, I know some sellers who are getting 25% of what they used to get for PSA 8 1960's cards. On the CU boards you see a lot of people complaining about companies like 4SC's sending in mass submissions of 10-20 or more of the same topps common and just killling the price where many end up selling for less than the grading fees. I dont begrudge them for doing that to get a few hits and make money, hey its a business. It is saturating the market and those already with graded versions of the cards get hammered. There are some areas that have done great with no going down at all but its the same ultra rare stuff going up like topps test issues, scarce issues like Kahns, Bazooka Boxes, Topps Venz, etc.
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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by ullmandds on Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:13 am

It's a great time to be a type collector these days!!!!! E99/100's for $200...D310's for $50...E94 Blombs Chocolates for less than $500...T213-1's for a buck and change...T216 Kottons for $250...T217's for $2-300...T211's for $2-300...I paid anywhere from 2x-6-8x current prices for some of my types over the last few years.

Obviously the values for many types have returned to more reasonable levels...partially a market correction...maybe some of these types aren't as tough as it once seemed as people were not selling many of these due to "perceived" toughness?

T213-1's have been appearing regularly all over the auction nation lately....as are many other "perceived" really tough types.

What gives?


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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by terjung on Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:29 am

Agreed that E107s are strong (and have rebounded nicely since the huge 2008 REA sale).
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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by ullmandds on Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:38 am

Agreed...E107's are strong! There was a very small window in time about 2-3 yrs ago when prices slipped...and I picked up 2 commons on the cheap...didn't last long!

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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by jbonie on Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:34 am

I believe that prices will rise 15-20% overall this spring as the economy recovers. Prices have been pretty depressed on a lot of issues, but there needs to be enough demand to sop up all the excess cards on the market, otherwise prices cannot rise.

We've seen some issues really take off like the t206 backs but overall things have lagged, a lot of the people who sold out over the last couple of years must reenter or be replaced by new buyers. But unlike before 2008, where most cards went for healthy prices, we are now seeing conditions where unless two bidders badly want the card, the price lags.

For instance, the Harry Wright in BLauctions that went, in my estimation, really low. It was kind of an okay card, decent-not-great in any way, yet a nice technical grade and okay image. But no one really wanted it - it was just subject to bargain hunters. Part of that may be the time of year or recent economic weakness, but contrast that to the recent buyers of E107's. A new bidder must have stepped in with aggressive bids that drove up the prices of those cards.

All auctions need bidders, of course, to realize a high final price. But the lesson here is to make sure you own cards that you know people are really going to want when you sell them, not just because they seem to be going cheap, and make sure you find an auction house that is big enough that all the large bidders will get involved.

Macro-economically, the European nations are starting to move to fix their problems and eventually things will get straightened out because the markets are too cheap right now. With more stock buying will come more card buying and speculation. I have no idea which issues to go up the most, rare T206 backs could continue to streak, but I think our hobby is still quite alive and am optimistic it will carry on strongly.
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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by jbonie on Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:38 am

Let me also add that another strong point other than rare backs has been high grade T206's and N172's, at least PSA-graded ones where major players are throwing their weight behind them. The SGC stuff should catch up eventually as those bidders return to the market.
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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by Bosox Blair on Wed Oct 12, 2011 1:37 am

jbonie wrote:
For instance, the Harry Wright in BLauctions that went, in my estimation, really low. It was kind of an okay card, decent-not-great in any way, yet a nice technical grade and okay image. But no one really wanted it - it was just subject to bargain hunters. Part of that may be the time of year or recent economic weakness, but contrast that to the recent buyers of E107's. A new bidder must have stepped in with aggressive bids that drove up the prices of those cards.


Hi Jamie,

Interesting you mention the recent B&L auction. I was participating, and tracking about 10 lots I was interested in. Pretty much all of the lots I was interested went for considerably more than I thought the recent "market" was.

The main card I was after was the E106 Speaker. Two years ago B&L auctioned this exact card for about $1600 all in. This time round it ended at almost $2500. I gave up at $1800.

I was left with the impression that prices in that auction were generally strong. (I will note again that I don't follow 19th c. so I'm just talking T and E cards here.)

I did end up getting three cards that I wanted and thought were very good buys (around 75% of recent VCP). And T3s remain quite soft.



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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by the-illini on Thu Oct 13, 2011 1:47 am

jbonie wrote:

For instance, the Harry Wright in BLauctions that went, in my estimation, really low. It was kind of an okay card, decent-not-great in any way, yet a nice technical grade and okay image. But no one really wanted it - it was just subject to bargain hunters.

I think a lot of OJ collectors are finally starting to look at the image on the card instead of the grade on the slab. The Wright you mentioned had a good technical grade but the image, like you said, was not particularly strong.
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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by jbonie on Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:35 pm

However the California Brown card in that same auction was high grade and did really well, it did have a fantastic image, which goes to show that grade still matters, but it seems like high grade cards with poor images are getting devalued.

It'll be interesting to see how the stuff in Mile High fares, as there are both bold and faded OJ SGC 88's, plus some more crappy looking mid-grade HOFers, kind of like the Wright card (though the Harry card is a bit more rare and has a higher price point generally).

Also, I saw Heritage has a PSA 5 of the same Harry pose going, but that card is super-faded. It'll be interesting to see what it pulls and if set-registry PSA guys are interested in pulling it in for purely for the technical grade.

Glad prices were high in rest of the b-l auction, I hadn't checked past the first page Very Happy
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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by walktheplank on Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:15 pm

nadja caramels are down big as well. except for the recent e104-3 grant in goodwin

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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by sabrjay on Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:23 pm

E104-3s are far rarer than e92s so you most likely won't see the value of e104-3s affected since there has not been a big sell off recently like you saw with e107s. The closest would be when Lionel Carter's collection was sold.

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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by Bosox Blair on Sun Oct 23, 2011 11:03 pm

A few comments on the October Mile High auction. I thought the prices realized there were very high indeed.

One example - in October's B&L auction a PSA 4 E95 Cicotte sold for $360.00...in Mile High's October auction the card in the same PSA grade sold for $838.00...over 2.3 times the price in the same month. (I prefer the eye-appeal of the Mile High card, but still!!!)

Surprisingly, the prices Mile High got on T3s are like a trip back to the high-flying days. From what I've seen over the last 2-3 years, Mile High got some of the highest results on T3s in quite awhile.

Seems to me that Mile High attracts the PSA registry cult big-time. I think there is ample support for this in their multiple sales of PSA 9 Bowman and Topps cards of Joe Nobody for $5000+...people can spend their money how they like, but this buying always mystifies me.

But I think some of this trickles through to pre-war in their auction. For instance, in terms of 1915 CJ commons, the PSA 8.5s sold for double what the equivalent SGC 92 sold for. In my observations, that does not happen in an auction like REA that is not geared towards the PSA registry bunch.
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Re: The recent fall of the Hobby

Post by jbonie on Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:01 am

The set registry guys are pumping up high grade PSA prices, but I think eventually that will change once the dynamics even out. In some sets, SGC cards are going for almost a full grade lower in cost than PSA ones. Therefore, I think SGC cards are a better bet going forward. For instance, a couple nice looking SGC 88 OJ's (esp. the Monk Cline) went for $1200-1500 in Mile High. Those should be worth closer to 2k in my opinion. A lot of stuff not nearly as nice as those cards went for a whole lot more money.
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