Has the T206 "back" phenomenon peaked?

With the crazy prices collectors are paying for certain back variations, are we getting like it was back 4 years ago. Is it ripe for a correction or are we just getting started?

It's hard to tell...part of me thinks the rare back/freak/error T206 phenomenon is just getting started. As the T206 tends to be the "gateway" card that many people start collecting as they become interested in vintage. And since the T206 is so popular...yet most of the cards are so common...these rarer T206's satisfy that aspect of T206 collecting.

I think the recent drive up in BL backs may be somewhat of an anomaly...as one ending on ebay last night ended a touch over $700...which seems a lot more reasonable than over 1K.

I think the rarer backs...Red Hindu, Uzit, Lenox, Drum, Brown lenox/om will continue to appreciate as more T206 collectors seek out these tougher cards trying to complete back runs for the diff tobacco brands...as well as player/back collections...which seems to have become the latest rage!

I think just getting started. This would be good thread to add a poll to.

jbonie wrote:This would be good thread to add a poll to.

Done.

Good thread Mark, should merit some interesting responses. Personally, I think it hasn't peaked yet. With so many new collectors joining the t206 hunt, and with so many of them needing rare backs to complete their back runs, the demand will always be high.

Plus, there has always been a certain mystique about the Uzits and Drums and Lenox backs, etc. I don't see that changing any time soon. But I'm not a t206 collector myself - I will defer to the experts on this one!

25 years ago I told I was insane for caring about the backs of a t206. Especially the factory numbers. Back then, I was probably one of the few people that actually new just how tough a Piedmont factory 42 was when most people didn't even know there were different factory numbers.

The current craze probably hasn't peaked yet, but I'm guessing that current prices might be where they fall back to once the bubble bursts.

I think the back craze has at least another 4 months worth of going nuts. It is fairly in it's infancy and that tends to mean people get the bug that they "got" to have it and will pay a lot more money than if they are casually going after something.

The T206 backs are in "Fashion" and you need to make sure you are with the "in" crowd.

By the way, the prices are really stupid in my book. My Cycle 460 collection went up at least 3 fold in the last 6 months.

Lee

But Lee...if you stopped buying/collecting cycle 460's...what would happen to values?

All it takes is 2 people who want the same thing...but when when 1 drops out...values can plummet?!

Seems like Broadleaf is one of those backs that's especially "on fire" right now. This PSA 2 BL 350 Freeman sold just last night on ebay for $710, and that doesn't appear to be outside of the norm for BL's these days. Easily 2-3x what it would have sold for a year or two ago.

The $710 is actually relatively low compared to other recent sales. I am surprised someone didn't at least go $800 and throw it in one the auction houses.

Lee

Looking at this chart, I would say we are in the "enthusiasm stage" for T206 backs.

Jamie...are you going to branch out into the 20th century?!?!?!

I'm far from an expert on T206 backs but it just seems to me like there are a select few individulals who have decided to collect as many rare backs as they can at all cost, this has caused demand to skyrocket. These well funded collectors have raised the ante for any other collector who want/need a rare back for their collection, this will keep prices strong until one of these horders cards come to market, they change focus or their buying power changes. An example of this is when the large group of E107's hit the market a few years back and look how prices still have not recovered now, in this case prices of commons fell as much as 50% and to me are still 25%+ off their highs.

I would be interested to hear how the under bidding is on the ones sold on ebay, if a card sells at $700, how many bidders were over $500? While not perfect and not all bidders will show up (late snipes) I do like to see how the bidding stacks up. I find that in far too many auction I see a card go high compared to previous sales, more times than not its just two bidders battling it out and the rest of the bidders were in the bottom half of the price range.

I also like Jamies Bubble chart but I would put it much higher up, almost past the greed stage.

Scott...I agree!

I'd say we are in the greed phase also.

I also, looking at that chart it is in full greed mode.

Found this t206 Broadleaf 350 Speaker while bumming around on ebay today. Beauty of a card - but will anyone drop 4k on it? Who knows with the current market the way it is. Most people (myself included) voted that t206 prices are "just getting started" so maybe someday this will turn out to be a bargain? I'm a bit skeptical.

FYI - I contacted the seller and he's not giving much wiggle room as far as price is concerned.

fisherboy7 wrote:Found this t206 Broadleaf 350 Speaker while bumming around on ebay today. Beauty of a card - but will anyone drop 4k on it? Who knows with the current market the way it is. Most people (myself included) voted that t206 prices are "just getting started" so maybe someday this will turn out to be a bargain? I'm a bit skeptical.

FYI - I contacted the seller and he's not giving much wiggle room as far as price is concerned.

I believe John (Wonka) bought the PSA 4 BL Speaker that this seller refers to.

ullmandds wrote:Jamie...are you going to branch out into the 20th century?!?!?!

Maybe, I don't think so, but perhaps a beater collection. Honestly, I haven't been following prices on 20th Cent stuff very well and hadn't realized just how crazy the prices have become on the backs. At some point guys with these backs will want to start to flip for a profit but we don't seem to be there yet. Not enough supply to meet current demand. Once a large collector decides to unload his backs, that will be the end of it. You will have one less bidder and tons of backs flooding the market. We don't seem there yet, but based on the prices you guys are citing we may be in the greed phase. But it could stay this way for a long time. Some people may say that rare backs are just realizing their fair value. The more people who give in to that notion, the higher prices could go.

I did buy the Speaker I love how sellers use a previous auction to pimp their own inflated prices and then make up stuff. Regardless of looks it’s a nice card and all but it’s not a VGEX card second it’s not the only second known example there are 3 that I’m aware of a fellow board member also owns a Speaker in a 2.

My lesser card in question...


The buyer just bought the eBay card along with the T205 Herzog in a fairly public auction he paid $2,300 for the Speaker and $325 for the Herzog. Many collectors knew these cards were up I didn’t bid knowing this card at best was a 2 or so as you could clearly see the crease.

As for tougher backs from T206 I think you will see continued increases on the ultra scarce it will depend on who is in the market at the time those ultra scarce branded items come up. What is certain on many of these T206 brands there are literally only so many of each. Take BL460 where there are 45+ known examples floating in the hobby confirmed. Even if there is another 50 stuck in old timers binders which I think is realistic that's only 100 cards. This is amongst 1000’s of T206 collectors or perhaps a 100+ serious hardcore guys. The demand far outweighs the supply and the prices will reflect. Now get into brown this or brown that where there are less than 20 or so and well it’s anybody’s guess.

One thing is for sure with more and more folks collecting this set I don’t think you are going to see prices drop dramatically. As cards like Wagner, Plank, Magie & Doyle surpass more and more folks the natural progression is what can I own that is cool that few folks have that leads to backs. If you are a completion guy 100% of the set well then you’re always chasing a dragon you may never catch….

Cheers,

John

wonkaticket wrote:...then you’re always chasing a dragon you may never catch….

Cheers,

John

Damn that heroin addiction.

Makes me wonder what this guy would sell for now...sold this last year for a great price at the time, but with all these 2 & 3's selling for $500+ now it's crazy.

Don't know, Sean...BL + moustache=big big bucks!!!!

T206s have always been the most popular pre-war set. This is just another way to obsess about them. I think with the increasing knowledge and information we have, back collecting is only going to become more popular.

wonkaticket wrote:
As cards like Wagner, Plank, Magie & Doyle surpass more and more folks the natural progression is what can I own that is cool that few folks have that leads to backs. If you are a completion guy 100% of the set well then you’re always chasing a dragon you may never catch….

Cheers,

John

Good point.
JimB