N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by wonkaticket on Mon May 16, 2011 3:22 am

Jeff is very correct on this one...I know of thousands of OJ's that are raw and in private hands. In fact this past month alone I'm aware of two major finds that added 500+ new unkown OJ's.

OJ's are out there and most are far from slabs if I had to guess I would say such a small % of OJ's that are in the hobby have ever seen a grading company or the pop reports.

Cheers,

John
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by jbonie on Mon May 16, 2011 3:33 am

Now that I've cooled off a bit, let me just say that this thread was never intended to show up the authors of the Old Judge book, whose work (and collections!) I greatly admire. But rational observers must admit that the authors could be wrong with some of their estimates.

The table and research I created may not give perfectly accurate rankings of rarity, but it provides a reference point for OJ collectors that had previously not existed and generally groups the cards into three different general levels of rarity.

Anyone who wants to surmise that those levels are incorrect, based on their own intimate knowledge of cards cracked, etc., is for them to share or use as they wish. However the table I created is meant to serve a general purpose of showing rarity as expressed through population report - at well as give totals not expressed by the OJ book.

These provide a better picture of the general rarity of the card than a simple list, and (legitimately) calls into question some of the rankings in the OJ book. It is solely meant to be a tool for collectors to help them make more informed decisions.
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On a further note

Post by jbonie on Mon May 16, 2011 2:27 pm

Furtherly, let me just say that we all see Jay's posts on Net54 where he consistently states his opinion that technical grade does not matter with OJ's and they are judged solely on image quality. Auction results clearly show that assertion to be false. Look at the three SGC 88 OJ's that went in REA. Or the SGC 84 Comiskey. The PSA 8 Welch that went for 12k. Or my own SGC 84 Delahanty from last year (which had two underbidders). Or the PSA 8 Delahanty that sold for 31k last June! It is not true that technical grade does not matters for OJ's, as much as Jay Miller might like it to be true based on his postings.

Same concept here in that Jay and Richard's OJ HOF rankings may not be accurate. Not everything these guys say needs to be taken verbatim. Todd should change his username from "nolemmings" from "lemmings" because that's what most of you have become!

Now we have Wonka asserting that graded OJ's are only a "small percentage" of all OJ's. Are you meaning to imply that past the 100 Kelly's graded, there are 500 ungraded ones floating around? Or that there are another 150 Delahanty's out there?

To paraphrase Jerry Maguire, "Show me the cards!" They never seem to make it to auction, there are no scans of these extra 500 King Kelly's, and I've never met the 500 people who collect them. So why should I believe that they exist?
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by terjung on Mon May 16, 2011 2:59 pm

jbonie wrote: Todd should change his username from "nolemmings" from "lemmings" because that's what most of you have become!


Really, Jamie? A difference of opinion on the reliability of population reports vs. a pretty authoritative text and it comes to name-calling?

How about we leave that to other boards?
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by Bicem on Mon May 16, 2011 3:15 pm

jbonie wrote:Furtherly, let me just say that we all see Jay's posts on Net54 where he consistently states his opinion that technical grade does not matter with OJ's and they are judged solely on image quality. Auction results clearly show that assertion to be false.


I think Jay was simply referring to the more savvy OJ collectors and not the "dumb money" in the hobby, which there is a lot of.
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by sabrjay on Mon May 16, 2011 4:09 pm

Just to clarify, I'm pretty sure he is refering to Jay Miller and not me.

Once again, I will point out that auction results are not always a good barometer. All it takes is two stupid people to run a price beyond the norm. This doesn't mean that everyone collecting that set will be willing to pay that much. I've seen a few SGC 84 OJs with severely faded images. Unless it's a rare card in the set, advanced collectors won't touch that card. The slab jockeys may pay dearly for that flip, but not the die hard OJ collectors.

The reason you should believe that these "phantom" cards exist is that hobby veterans like myself (over 30 years now) have seen amazing collections of even more veteran collectors, most of whom do not get their cards slabbed. Maybe in 30-40 years when these people have died or sold off their collections will the majority of pre-war HOFers be in slabs.

Here's a little homework assignment for you. Check and see how many t206 Wagners are slabbed. Then add 15-20 to that number because there are probably that many or more still unslabbed.

I think another reason OJs don't get slabbed as much is that they are very durable cards. When you handle them, you don't fear dropping them or accidently dinging a corner.


Last edited by sabrjay on Mon May 16, 2011 4:47 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by pro9 on Mon May 16, 2011 4:34 pm

For the most part the pop reports resemble (not mirror) the difficulty ratings of OJ HOF'ers from the OJ book. I don't think the authors thought that there listing was 100% accurate nor that everybody would agree with their exact ranking.
For example, I have seen a lot more Radbournes than Beckleys available and yet the book has Radbourne being more difficult.
Delehanty seems to be an outlier, but because of it's value it would make more sense to each card to be resubmitted more times than the average HOF'er hence it's lower ranking on the pop report.
In any event, it's an interesting discussion and there is no need for people to get upset over a difference of opinion.

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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by nolemmings on Mon May 16, 2011 5:12 pm

Todd should change his username from "nolemmings" from "lemmings" because that's what most of you have become!
Unreal. You solicit opinions then get chafed when they don't mesh with yours. You also mischaracterize what I posted, which you describe as "musings". I did not state that a technical grade was irrelevant. I referenced the remarks of Jay Behrens, not Jay Miller, in stating that the quality of the photo is more important than the technical grade, a view which is pretty widely held and was shared by others in this thread. I will not point you to auction results showing mid-grade OJs with faded, pinkish-hued images selling for less than lower graded, back damage specimens that have strong images. You can do that research yourself, or simply choose to disbelieve--I couldn't care less either way.

You can also delude yourself into believing that the OJ populations are fully and accurately reflected in the PSA/SGC pop reports. I would offer one first-hand observation that might have some illustrative effect, although frankly you don't deserve it. I collect m101s. Some of these carry an ad back for Mall Theatre, and they are coveted as scarce, which they are. The pop reports show 5 graded total. I personally own 5 and traded a sixth, only one of which is graded. I bought them through a Dolloff catalog six years ago at a time when there were 18 for sale, only one of which is now graded--the one I submitted. I also know of two others, making twenty total. Thus I alone, a fairly modest collector who has only been chasing these cards for 10-12 years, can personally attest that the population of Mall Theatre cards is four times what is shown in the pop reports. Now this is clearly a much smaller sample size than the known OJ pops, but if one gives any credence to the fact that someone like Jay Miller has been chasing these for 25+ years, and that there are dozens of Jay Millers in the country, (never mind a Lew Lipset or Larry Fritsch), it is not a stretch to conclude that the number of known OJs is many, many times the number graded. The fact that such anecdotal evidence does not fully jive with your "studies" is immaterial. Feel free to have your "show me the cards" approach and see where that gets you.

Finally, I did not "pick" the opinions of the OJ authors over any empirical data, but merely cautioned that their opinions should be given deference and not easily discounted. I choose to consider both, and am not a lemming to either. That is my opinion. As for facts, let me conclude by offering one: There is a zero per cent chance that I will ever go out of my way to assist you in finding a card that you want.
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by the-illini on Mon May 16, 2011 6:23 pm

Anyone who wants to trade a low grade Bid McPhee with a phenomenal image for a higher grade Wilbert Robinson with a light image, please PM me. Cool
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by wonkaticket on Mon May 16, 2011 7:12 pm

jbonie wrote:Now we have Wonka asserting that graded OJ's are only a "small percentage" of all OJ's. Are you meaning to imply that past the 100 Kelly's graded, there are 500 ungraded ones floating around? Or that there are another 150 Delahanty's out there? To paraphrase Jerry Maguire, "Show me the cards!" They never seem to make it to auction, there are no scans of these extra 500 King Kelly's, and I've never met the 500 people who collect them. So why should I believe that they exist?

Jamie,

Yes to be blunt yes these cards are out there, can I assign an exact number no nro could you with your pop reports.

Just in the past few REA's we have had 100's if not a thousand new OJ's fresh to market hit the block, this included a rare California league card.

Jamie there are at least 3 collectors I personally know that have thousands of OJís in their collections including lots of the very poses you discussed. There was a recent amazing find of 19th material in the MD area that will be soon to hit REA that brought countless new items to light many known some never before seen.

In this past month alone I have seen new Yum Yums, OJís and even new T210ís, T212ís, T209ís and others from old time collectors such as Pollard. I know of one or two other T210 Jacksons that are not in any pop report. These guys arenít going to show you the cards or take time out of the day to make sure some round about card census is correct donít hold your breath on that. Not everyone is as open with their collections as I am or others may be, and many days I regret being so open myself.

Then there are the pop reports themselves. How many of these 100 cards have been seen twice?

Hoping for a bump or switched to a PSA, then to SGC, then back to PSA. Hell I have cards that I know have been counted two to three times by grading companies. My AUTH Magie that Iím looking to sell was in a PSA holder now in a SGC and soon to be switched back to PSA. That means that one card has been counted two too many times.

That's all I'm saying and as for value, regardless of which Jay said it the grade is not important on OJ's its the pose and image hat set the price.

Do high grade examples get big bucks sure all high grade cards bring strong money but in OJ land a beater common can eclipse a PSA 7 you don't see that too often T206's.

Cheers,

John
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by jbonie on Mon May 16, 2011 9:54 pm

People want to make out like I am an idiot who doesn't understand that image quality affects card price, or doesn't realize that some cards were cracked and re-subbed to the grading companies.

A couple bottom line statements:

1) An SGC 88 OJ will sell for multiple times an SGC 10 OJ with equivalent image quality of the same player and pose.

2) The rarity ranking derived by the OJ book authors is a subjective opinion that is close but inevitably inaccurate due to the impossibility of tracking each and every example of an HOF OJ card.

I was referring to Jay Miller earlier on. I assume he has the Cap uniform avatar in Net54.

Todd, I don't need anyone to find cards for me. Good luck with your collection.

John, good for you if you have inside information about new finds, collections, etc. But wouldn't all those new OJ finds affect the very same OJ book HOF rarity rankings we were originally debating?

Maybe we can try to find some common ground here and put an end to the drama.
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by sabrjay on Mon May 16, 2011 11:03 pm

jbonie wrote:People want to make out like I am an idiot who doesn't understand that image quality affects card price, or doesn't realize that some cards were cracked and re-subbed to the grading companies.

A couple bottom line statements:

1) An SGC 88 OJ will sell for multiple times an SGC 10 OJ with equivalent image quality of the same player and pose...

No one is saying you are an idiot. Where you got in trouble is when you said that high grade OJs sell for multiples of lower grade ones after I talked about image quality being everything for the majority of OJ collectors. You never said anything about image quality being the same until now. Your statement above is a statement of the painfully obvious. No one here would argue against it. But you put up an 88 with a fade pink image against a 10 with a good strong image and the 10 will trounce the 88 almost every time.

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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by jbonie on Mon May 16, 2011 11:35 pm

I think an SGC 88 with a pink crappy image will still haul in at least $500-600 while an SGC 10 with a great image of the same common player/pose only goes for maybe $250. I don't subscribe to VCP but I doubt you'd find any SGC 88 sold for under $500.

Please note that I am not saying the personally want to own a pink crappy SGC 88 over a gorgeous SGC 10, I would not pursue any OJ with a crappy image. I'm just stating the facts in regard to sale prices. In fact, in REA I bid on the Robinson but not the McPhee. But in the end I really wanted a Kelly badly and loved the image quality/pose/provenance in his new Boston uniform.

Some people claim that price is driven far more by image quality than technical grade, but I have found that in reality it is about equal between the two factors.
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by BigGuy219 on Tue May 17, 2011 1:37 am



I would argue that this is a terrible image, yet it brought in just under 16,000 in Goodwin's April auction!
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by jbonie on Tue May 17, 2011 3:25 am

Thank you, Chris, and this what I find frustrating about boards like this.

Todd, nolemmings, whatever you want to call him, says that I solicit opinions and then chafe at them. I don't recall soliciting opinions. When did I solicit opinions? I just posted the pop report information. Yet then he goes on to complain that I mischaracterized his opinion, when in the previous sentence he just mischaracterized me. Then he goes on to say, "You can also delude yourself into believing that the OJ populations are fully and accurately reflected in the PSA/SGC pop reports." When did I ever say that? Again, another mischaracterization.

He also says, "I will not point you to auction results showing mid-grade OJs with faded, pinkish-hued images selling for less than lower graded, back damage specimens that have strong images." Obviously not, because the McPhee actually sold for more than the Robinson at REA and that was just two weeks ago. Correct, "he will not", because it didn't happen!

Then he goes on to say "Feel free to have your "show me the cards" approach and see where that gets you." I think it would get me would be to the truth!

Let me further comment on the dynamic of the thread here. I post something that suggests a contradiction with expert opinion. The board leader/moderator comes on and says he trusts the experts. Then the #2, Ben, comes on and says he agrees with the #1. Then all these other board members hop on their backs and back them up, too, leaving me against the wall.

So we have a hierarchy of: Book authors > Board Moderator > #2 Board Moderator > Lemming-like Board Members

Of course these board members come on and repeat the same tired old mantras of "the image being far more important than technical grade when deciding price", the "experts must know, trust the experts" blah blah blah. But it's all conjecture! The only thing missing is semblance of fact.

And this nolemmings has a fit when I tease him about his lemming-like behavior. The only thing I can say is, the moniker "nolemmings" appears to be more an aspiration than a reality. Maybe he chose that aspiration due to prior lemming-like behavior which he has since repeated on this thread!

If you want to meet someone who's not a lemming, you're reading his post right now! Evil or Very Mad
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by jbonie on Tue May 17, 2011 3:43 am

Also, nolemmings goes blabbing on and on about the 25+ years of experience of the authors, and then says "their opinions should be given deference". And then ironically states in the next sentence "I am not a lemming."

Was he paraphrasing Richard Nixon's, "I am not a crook"?

He concludes by saying, "There is a zero per cent chance that I will ever go out of my way to assist you in finding a card that you want." Not to hold a grudge or anything Razz

But what did he think the odds were that I would ever ask his assistance in such a task, anyways? scratch
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by BigGuy219 on Tue May 17, 2011 3:45 am

The internet has dramatically changed the hobby. I believe that smart, savvy collectors of these types will go for super picture clarity over super card condition.

An example would be the Billy Sunday "King" Kelly card that Jamie just bought. Rough, but the picture looked as it did 120 years ago.

However, it would be wrong to deny the impact the registry is having on the hobby. There are many big collectors who don't get to socialize with other collectors in person, and only have the internet. For them, the way they choose to show their collection is the registry. And in many cases these collectors are buying the label, not the card. The ratings their sets get is the most important thing to them. Whether it is sensible or not can be debated, but they are doing it.
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by wonkaticket on Tue May 17, 2011 4:56 am

Jamie,

Not sure I was hopping on any band wagon if youíre including me in thisÖif you know anything about me Iím not exactly the band wagon type.

I was really just sharing hobby knowledge and stuff you may consider when discussing your theory.

By the way I think the guys all had fair points for FWIW.

Cheers,

John
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by jbonie on Tue May 17, 2011 5:13 am

No, John, I did not consider you as part of that. Your points were more esoteric. What you think of their opinions is your call. I was just pointing out what I noticed as the board dynamic.
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by bowlingshoeguy on Tue May 17, 2011 5:19 am

Jamie, interesting thread but the personal attacks need to end, plain and simple. People are giving there opinion here and we all have a right to agree or disagree. Many of us (if not all prefer to keep the personal attacks else where).

Stay on line with the thread, please.

Lee
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by jbonie on Tue May 17, 2011 5:23 am

Fair enough, Lee.
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by sabrjay on Tue May 17, 2011 3:44 pm

No one here is a lemming. If anything, this is the anti-lemming board. If you think we are piling on, maybe you should consider that everyone is not a lemming but that what we are is saying carries a lot more weight than a pop report does. Pop reports have their place and are a decent tool for commonly slabbed sets, but when you try to make generalizations about a set that have the vast majority of its cards in a raw state you are going to get some blow back.

As for people falling in line with whatever I say, I hope that's never true. I tend to get in trouble for a lot of things I say in this hobby nono

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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by jpcw on Tue May 17, 2011 8:58 pm

Hey- What's with all the "crappy pink tint" talk? Just kidding, no offense taken, & I'll take what I can get.

This one is raw & will probably stay that way. I will say, that it is nice/comforting to hand someone a slabbed card & not have to worry about any possible damage that might have otherwise been done to it.
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by jbonie on Thu May 19, 2011 1:22 am

Pretty In Pink!

I like it, I'm with you. Nice Anson. Obviously the Goodwin Co. agreed because they inserted the color into the cards!
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Re: N172 Old Judge HOF Rarity Rankings

Post by fisherboy7 on Sun May 29, 2011 5:40 pm

Here's a good example of image quality meaning everything for N172's. Robinson ranks #1 on Jamie's HOF scarcity list....this one is crease free with nice corners, but an extremely faint image. Really ugly card. Sold for just the min bid of $500. With a nice image, it could have sold for 8-10X that amount.

http://cgi.ebay.com/N172-Old-Judge-Robinson-Athletics-HOFer-/270747091230?pt=US_Baseball&hash=item3f09c8c11e

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